U18 Thoughts - Day 3

Day 3 of the U18 Champs had me running around the country to catch the games I wanted to see, got to enjoy the backroads of southern Czech Republic, experienced a 5 man accordion band in the lobby of my hotel when I got back and saw some old friends.

As far as the games went here are my thoughts from a busy day 3:

USA- CZE
- Another shutout for Collin Olson, people don't understand how difficult it is for a North American to come to Europe for a short term competiton.  The adjustments and fatigue really effect focus, which most positions can get away with.  Goaltenders not so much.
- The US kept the Czechs to 17 shots on goal with most of those coming in the 3rd period with the game firmly in their control.
- The stable of US defenders led by Jones and Trouba is exceptional, they play a smart team game and the transitional attack option they provide is deadly.
- Daniel O'Reagan has been a nice addition to the team and has seen a lot of crucial offensive minutes up front, including PP minutes.  His ability to play the perimeter has made life easy for Nicholas Kerdiles who is getting more chances from the middle ice to shoot.
- Young Czech forward Jakub Vrana had a great game agasint Denmark but was not able to match his performance agains the US and really struggled to win space against the big, mobile US defenders.
- It was a tough showing for most of the Czech players as not many were able to get much going.

RUS - GER
- Germany pulled off arguably their biggest upset win at this tournament in recent memory.  They were a surprising team last year and look to repeat that situation again this year.
- Germany is well coached, play a very disciplined team style and pick their spots.
- 95 born Frederik Tiffels was the catalyst for Germany in this game.  His lightning quick speed and full ice work ethic was contagious after he put it together for Germany's first goal of the game.
- The combination of Marcel Kurth and 95 born Leon Draisaitl was potent on the powerplay.  Draisaitl is a very good playmaker in the offensive end and showed off some tremendous vision, with Kurth battles hard for space and can make things happen around the net.
- German goaltender Marvin Cupper was beyond stellar keeping Russia frustrated in the 3rd period and was the main reason Germany was able to hold on for the win.
- Russia has great young talent up front.  Late 94 birthdate Bogdan Yakimov is a very appealing offensive player.  He has great size, moves well and his technical ability with the puck is impressive.
- Valeri Nichushkin, who plays every shift with Yakimov in all situations, is explosive and has seemingly endless talent.  Great with the puck, he showed outstanding poise and patience on Russia's first goal and sprinkled in strong displays of defensive and physical play throughout the game for a very complete performance.
- Anton Slepyshev is one of Russia's top prospects for this year's draft but has been seriously overshadowed by his younger linemates.
- Andrei Vasilevski, who has a shot to be the first goaltender drafted this year, was unimpressive.  He didn't have a bad game, but wasn't able to come up with the saves he really needed to.  He continues to show holes on his blocker side.  He wasn't bad, by any stretch, but he needs to be better to justify his hype.

SWE-SUI
- Sweden continued their dominance of this event so far with a convincing drubbing of Switzerland.
- The game was never really in doubt for Sweden and their big guns had little trouble creating chances on the Swiss.
- Again, leading the way it was the line of Sebastien Collberg, Alexander Wennberg and Gustav Possler, with Possler taking his turn to score a hat trick in this game.  The 3 are at the top of the tournament scoring chart so far.
- Hampus Lindholm had a strong showing and displayed some of the offensive flare that has him flying up the draft board for most teams.
- Swedish netminder Oscar Dansk, who is my personal vote for top goaltending prospect this year had a mediocre showing.  He was never forced to do too much and went long stretches without much action.
- The Swiss did not have much working for them in this game.  They relied heavily on their top line of Lukas Balmelli, Lukas Sieber and Dario Simion but the trio was not able to muster up many chances.  Sieber's frustration was evident in the 3rd period and he resorted to using his stick a little freely on the defensive side of the puck.

CAN-FIN
- The game started out with a fast pace and some good physical play.  Both teams had some good chances to score but both Korpisalo and Murray proved up for the task
- Canada got on the board with under a second to play in the 1st period as Matt Dumba hammered a one timer off the faceoff to open the scoring.
- Canada had Ryan Pulock and Hunter Shinkaruk dressed and playing even though they only arrived in Breclav slightly over an hour before the game.  Pulock showed the fatigue a bit, struggling to control the puck early and was relegated to mostly PP duty for the game with the odd shift here or there.  Shinkaruk on the other hand didn't seem to miss a beat and was more and more prevelant as the game went on.
- Scott Kosmachuk's work ethic really stood out.  He flies around the ice and always seems to be in the action.
- Darnell Nurse had a rough game, getting called on some tough situations where he was perhaps a bit too overzealous physically.
- Kerby Rychel was arguably Canada's best player in this game, showing great work ethic and desire to get the puck at the net.
- Teuvo Teravainen and Juuso Ikonen were also making their tournament debuts as both just arrived in the Czech Republic.  Teravainen was hands down the best player on the ice for either team and showcased his ability to do a bit of everything.  His stock will continue to climb if he can keep up the efforts like this one.
- Ristolainen and Pokka had very average showings but Niklas Tikkinen was exceptional.  He is a very smooth moving defender with great deceptive skills and tremendous puck distribution ability.
- Arrturi Lehkonen is a 95 born Finnish forward wearing an A.  He played on the top line with Teravainen and Ikonen and had a very strong showing.  He is dynamite around the net and shows great ability to pick up pucks in scrambles and rebounds.  His hands and goal scoring ability are high end.
- Canada's Matt Murray actually kept the score from being a lot worse than it was.  Finland moved the puck extremely well on the PP and managed to find shooting lanes from side to side.  Murray was excellent at getting across and denying chance after chance.  As strong as he was, I felt he was making saves he shouldn't have but didn't make a couple he should have.  All in all though an impressive performance that should help his draft stock.


Today there are two games on tap: Denmark vs. USA in Brno and Latvia vs. Sweden in Znojmo.  Both games are set to start at the same time, so I will likely take in the fun loving Latvians vs. the uber talented Swedes, which could prove to be a more competitive game than it appears on paper.

U18 Predictions

The Under-18 World Championship kicks off Thursday, April 12th but teams begin their exhibition schedules this weekend.  Here is a look ahead, some players to watch and some "bold" predictions on how the event could unfold:

Canada – Always an interesting blend of talent from teams no longer participating in the CHL playoffs, Canada is hit or miss at this event.  The team should be deep and hard working with strong mobile defense and quality competitive goaltenders.  Canada has assembled a strong roster that should be able to compete with all teams during the tournament and while lacking a lot of star power up front the group they have should build strong chemistry and rely on a score by committee strategy that could take them very far.

Prediction – Gold

Prospect to Watch: Matt Dumba – A potential top 5 pick in this year’s NHL draft, Dumba captained the Canadian U18 team to victory at this past summer’s Ivan Hlinka Memorial and will look for a repeat performance.  A very dynamic and explosive defender, Dumba can dominate the ice with his physical play but is also a very exciting offensive player as well.  Watch for Canada to rely on his massive one timers from the point on the PP.

Keep an eye on: Sam Reinhart – Reinhart is the youngest of the 3 sons of former NHLer Paul Reinhart.   Reinhart was one of the youngest players in Canadian Major Junior hockey this season but still managed to score at a near point per game pace and should take home the WHL rookie of the year award.  He is not eligible for the NHL draft until 2014 and is already projected at being a top pick.

Czech Republic – Their marquee talent, Radek Faksa remains entrenched in the CHL playoffs with Kitchener and is likely not going to be available for this tournament (barring a quick exit and recovery from a concussion sustained in round 1).  The Czechs have some skill up front and some very good puck moving defenders.  In goal, Marek Langhamer is capable of stealing some wins.  Depth is what holds the Czechs back right now, but expect them to matchup surprisingly well with just about everyone.

Prediction – 6th

Player to Watch: Petr Sidlik – A slick and intelligent defender, Sidlik has great instincts and while not overly blessed in the size department he is very good at breaking up plays and starting his own.  Sidlik should anchor a decent defensive group for the Czechs that also includes promising 95 born defender Jan Kostalek.  Sidlik should devour ice time for the Czechs and will be a major reason for any success they achieve during this event.

Keep an eye on: Martin Prochazka – He has great size, protects the puck well and can be near impossible to intimidate physically.  Prochazka isn’t always the most consistent player but when he’s on he is a very appealing power forward.  A strong performance at this event would help him showcase his very good pro-potential.

Denmark – A consistently improving program, this tournament is another great step in the right direction for Danish hockey.  They continue to produce well rounded rosters with more and more top level talent.  Denmark is doing a lot right with their hockey program but will continue to require patience as they aren’t quite ready to solidify their top group status at this level.  Expect them to go to the wire with a competitive Latvian team for relegation.

Prediction – 10^th - relegation

Player to Watch: Oliver Bjorkstrand - A 1995 birthdate, Bjorkstrand has been a mainstay with the U20 team this year and has produced goals at that level as well as in Denmark’s top men’s league.  He will be heavily relied on to produce offensive chances for the Danes if they have any hope of being competitive and avoiding relegation.  Speedy and dynamic, he has NHL draft potential for next season and continues to show strong development.

Keep an eye on: Mads Eller and Bjorn Udall – Udall is a very underrated and unheralded blueliner.  He has good size, moves well and can add some offensive kick from the backend.  He should see heavy minutes for the Danes and be relied on in all situations.  He will, however, need to put on a serious show to solidify any thought of him being an NHL draft pick at this point.  That being said, he is talented and developing very well making him worth a long hard look.  Eller is a 95 born player, and is the younger brother of Montreal forward Lars.

Finland – Finland is in an interesting predicament.  They are loaded with young talent and could put together a very competitive team.  The problem is some of their young stars are playing for teams that remain in league playoff battles.  Olli Maatta (London Knights) and Teuvo Teravainen (Jokerit) both look set for long playoff runs with their club teams, meaning they will not be made available for the tournament.  Finland remains a country with tremendous depth of talent though and should still provide a stern challenge for the medals.

Prediction – 5th

Player to Watch: Rasmus Ristolainen – An October 1994 birthdate, Ristolainen isn’t eligible to be drafted until next year, but would garner a lot of consideration if he were eligible this year.  He’s a very intelligent and physical defender who plays the game with the maturity of a man several grizzled years his elder.  He has good offensive upside as well and along with Ville Pokka should run the backend for the Finns.

Keep an eye on: Sasha Barkov – Another tremendously talented Finn, Barkov became the youngest player to score a goal at the World Junior Championships in December.  Not eligible until 2013, Barkov is a top 10 talent at this point and could even be considered as a top pick candidate.  Already playing against men, Barkov is a dynamic and powerful and should be one of the focal points of the Finnish attack, especially if Teravainen isn’t made available to join.

Germany – The German program continues to grow and while still not able to get over the hump of the elite teams, the IIHF’s new relegation scenarios should prove a major benefit to Germany who suffered years of up and down promotions and relegations.  This year’s crop should be competitive, well coached and versatile but should also give glimpses into the bright future of German ice hockey.  The 1995 crop of German players has shown a lot of promise for a program that will start to reap the benefits of consistency moving forward.

Prediction – 8th

Player to Watch: Marvin Cupper – Cupper was magnificent for Germany last year during this event and was the major reason Germany was able to compete with the top teams while hosting this event last year.  A bit undersized, Cupper is deceptively athletic and quick.  His technique is very strong and he plays a very aggressive and challenging style.  Felix Potvin comes to mind when watching the young German netminder.  He is an underrated netminder who will need some more grooming but his development path has proved very strong.

Keep an eye on: Leon Draisaitl – A late 95 born power forward in the making, Draisaitl is one of the most exciting German prospects in years.  He’s a good skater who plays a high tempo style game and can bring a bit of an edge at times as well.  He has excellent scoring potential and if he can continue to show good work ethic in his development he could prove to be a serious top prospect in 2014.

Latvia – Latvia suffers greatly from not having Zemgus Girgensons available for this tournament as he remains committed to his USHL club as their season continues.  There is still reason for optimism for the Latvian’s though as three of their U20 top scorers are eligible to play in this tournament as well.  Teddy Blueger, Nikita Jevpalovs and Robert Lipsbergs should make a up a more than capable top line for the Latvian’s, but will have to be on overdrive to push the Latvian’s out of the bottom group.  Overall their program seems to be on the up, but it’s still not enough.  Expect them to battle it out with Denmark for relegation.

Prediction – 9^th

Player to Watch: Teddy Blueger – Teddy as he’s known when he suits up for Shattuck St. Mary’s, or Teodors his true Latvian name, is an intelligent and opportunistic two-way forward.  He prefers to be an offensive contributor and should be relied on in that role during this tournament but his draft appeal lies on his ability to play against top players from other countries and not only score but keep them in check as well.  Projected as a later pick for the draft, this is a big tournament for Blueger and he needs to perform well (not just number-wise) to justify the hype around him.  Blueger is no stranger to some of the competition having played at Shattuck with players like Nathan MacKinnon and Oscar Dansk.

Keep an eye on: Rihards Bukarts – This kid isn’t eligible to be drafted until 2014 (December 31, 1995 birth date) but already has shown a nice blend of size, skill and work ethic worthy of note.  As one of the youngest players in the tournament, Bukarts will likely find himself in a secondary offensive role which should allow him to find some success and showcase his abilities.

Russia – No Yakupov, no Grigorenko....no problem, Russia has a wealth of young talent that can electrify, impress and compete.  Surely they will miss their top stars (Grigorenko still in CHL playoffs, Yakupov a late 93 who is too old this year) but they have plenty of offensive depth and young stars that have shown well internationally.  Chances get a serious boost if Quebec has a quick exit from CHL playoffs in round 2, but that seems unlikely.

Prediction – 4th

Player to Watch: Andrei Vasilevski – The highly touted Russian netminder is about as much of a veteran of this tournament as one could possibly be.  Entering his 3^rd U18 championship as Russia’s starter, Vasilevski is still riding the high his WJC performance afforded him.  A big and confident goaltender, Vasilevski needs to assert himself one more time as he battles with Oscar Dansk and Malcom Subban as the potential top goaltending prospect for this year’s draft.

Keep an eye on: Valeriy Nichuschkin and Bogdan Yakimov – Russia continues to produce superior offensive talents and both Nichuschkin and Yakimov fit that mould.  Both have been excellent contributor’s with Russia’s U18 program all year long, and while neither is eligible for the NHL draft until 2013, they should be the muscle in Russia’s offensive punch, filling the void of the aforementioned stars who can’t participate.

Sweden – On paper, Sweden looks stacked.  They have high end talent and reliable depth at every position.  They boast a plethora of potential top round NHL draft picks over the next couple of drafts and should prove to be a formidable opponent for all who stand in their way.  If anything their one downfall will be how they react to playing high energy, physical and gritty opponents like Canada and the US.  If Sweden can keep opponents from dictating the pace, tempo and style of games they play, they could potentially walk through this tournament.

Prediction – Silver

Player to Watch: Oscar Dansk – Sweden has a very deep roster, riddled with talent and potential high end picks, but the success of their team will fall on the shoulders of Dansk.  Dansk is, in my opinion, the best and most underrated goaltending prospect available for this year’s draft but not everyone is on board with that idea.  If Dansk can showcase his abilities and potential and lead this very capable Swedish team to a top 2 finish, you can bet his stock will start to ease into the realm that it truly belongs.   Dansk has good size, great focus and excellent athleticism.

Keep an eye on: Calle Andersson – Forsberg, Bystrom and Collberg are all likely first or at least early second round picks this year, but Andersson is truly interesting.  He’s not far off the abilities of Bystrom and could push his way up the draft charts with a strong performance during this tournament.

Switzerland – In recent years the Swiss have boasted rosters sprinkled with supreme talents such as Nino Niederreiter and Sven Baertschi.  This year’s squad doesn’t necessarily have that benefit, however it may be a roster with more depth than years past.  Switzerland will likely be the most mysterious team in this tournament and their final standing in this event could come down to how the bounces fall.

Prediction – 7th

Player to Watch: Christoph Bertschy – Bertschy saw major minutes in crucial situations for the Swiss U20 team at the WJC and there is no reason that he won’t be in a similar situation in this event.  He is an offensive presence that tends to sway more towards finisher than playmaker but he does have some playmaking talent as well.  The name of Bertschy’s game is creation, as very few players find themselves with as many scoring chances as he does.  Switzerland’s result in this tournament could be a direct result of how Bertschy executes in those situations he creates.

Keep an eye on: Phil Baltisberger – Another late 95 with tons of potential, Baltisberger was a member of Switzerland’s WJC team this past December/January and while he did not see a ton of ice time, his appeal was obvious with minimal evaluation required.  A big mobile and strong defender, Baltisberger has a great head for the game, can fire the puck but is most valuable because of his quick and reliable thinking in all situations.

USA – The US has dominated this event over the past decade and always seems to be the favorite coming in, however this year that’s not the case.  The US will once again ice a very competitive and talented team but on paper they fail to match up to years past and with the other top nations at this event.  The US will find most of their success starts with their very deep stable of defenders.  Trouba, Jones and Skjei will log huge minutes and will have to be on top of their games to push this team back towards glory.  All that being said, expect surprise performances from their forward group and a tight battle in the top 5 teams for the US.

Prediction – Bronze

Player to Watch: Jacob Trouba - Considered one of the top defensive prospects for this year’s NHL draft, the competition is tight to see who will be the first defender chosen.  Trouba is well in that mix.  A strong mix of size, grit and skill, Trouba leads a strong American defensive unit that will be relied on heavily if the US is going to challenge for top spot in this event and has an excellent opportunity here to solidify himself as the most valuable draft eligible defender heading into the draft.

Keep an eye on: Seth Jones - Jones is another prospect to keep an eye on, he will also anchor the US blueline and is a potential 1^st overall candidate for next year.  He has tremendous size and proves to be tremendously athletic (as would be expected from the son of a former NBA star).  He plays a very calculated game and can be dominant in all three zones on the ice.  He has the potential to win the top defenseman award at this event (on paper he will likely be up against Trouba and Dumba).