The point system in place now for the NHL is not ideal and doesn't optimally indicate who the best teams are.
Since my original blog on the idea of a 5 point system I have had a ton of feedback, and I've made alterations but also included some of the other options I've discussed with people.
A 3 points system seems easiest (but not necessarily best), each game would have a 3 point value on it. A regulation win is 3 points, a regulation loss 0. An OT or shootout win would be worth 2 points, while a loss in an extra frame only worth 1. Clean, simple, easy to compute, but OT and SO being worth the same still irks me a bit. The earlier a game ends indicates which team was better on a given night, and how much better. Winning in a game should be worth more than winning in a skills display.
Hence the 5 point system. I like the idea of all games being equal in points given out, so I have made an ammendment which actually makes more logical sense. The idea of the 5 point system would be this:
Regulation win - 5pts
Overtime win - 4 pts
Shootout win - 3 pts
Shootout loss - 2 pts
Overtime loss - 1 pt
Regulation loss - 0 pts
This system would reward the teams for winning earlier as it takes more skill to win a game in regulation then in an extra period or shootout. On the same side, teams should be rewarded for how long they can hang in with the winning team. It is much harder and the teams are obviously more equal on that particular day the more frames are needed to decide a winner. This system would also put a huge benefit to teams who go for it in overtime as opposed to playing for a shootout. Think two division rivals in overtime, you can go for a shootout win and gain 1 extra point over your rival, or go for it in OT and gain 3 extra points.
The biggest knock on the 5 point system is how hard it would be and how much math would be required to just calculate the totals for the average fan sitting around having a beer and knocking back another slice of pizza with their friends. Records would likely have to be displayed in order of points: Regulation Wins - Overtime Wins - Shootout Wins - Shootout Losses - Overtime Losses - Regulation Losses. For example the Rangers record now would read 38-8-4-5-2-22. Which seems quite complicated, especially since now we normally display recirds as 50-22-7. That is a tough sell.
Where the 5 point system picks up steam, is in the amount of points that teams get for losing games. It is much lower. In the current system, Florida has 18.68% of their total points from losses. Carolina and Montreal are over 20%. In the current system Florida is up by 3 points on Washington. That will require wins in Washington's final 2 games to pass the Panthers. However, in a 5 point system they still only trail by 3 points. Something that is made up in a single winning game. Washington has actually won 3 more games than Florida this year, so that 18.68% points from losses could in fact get the Panthers into the playoffs over a team that has performed better.
Not trying to take anything away form the Panthers, who could still end up the better team in all 3 point systems but the standings should be a lot closer than they actually are. Buffalo who is also right behind those two teams would actually stand to get hurt the most by another system. Right now they are 2 points those very same Capitals, but with a higher percentage of their point total coming from losses, they would end up 4 points back in a 3 point system and 9 back in a 5 point system. This has massive implications, because the Sabres have a game in hand on the Capitals. A single win and they are notted up with the Caps as opposed to having to win at least 1 game plus in the other systems.
In the West, it's even more prevelent, and again, a playoff spot could be determined because of it. Currently San Jose sits 8th, a single point ahead of 9th place Dallas. In a 3 point system, they would sit tied, both with 120pts. In a 5 point system, Dallas would actually be 4 points up on San Jose. The reason for this is again the amount of points acquired by San Jose in losses as compared to Dallas. Dallas has the 3rd lowest percentage of points gained from losses in the entire NHL, at 5.62%. Only Detroit (5.05%) and Boston (4.08%) have lower scores. San Jose on the other hand, hovers just above the league average (11.04%) at 11.11%.. That translates to 5 points for Dallas, and 10 for San Jose in the current system.
Also in the West, St. Louis would be the number one seed by almost 2 wins in every system except the current one, where they are actually 1 point behind 1st place Vancouver. Might not seem like a big deal now, but what if the Blues have to put up with the Green Men in game 7 of the conference finals?
All in all it might seem like a lot of fuss to make for some very small changes in the standings, but the fact is there is a ton riding on those subtlties and the current system fails to reward the absolute best performing teams throughout the season.
Showing posts with label Hockey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hockey. Show all posts
Tuesday, 3 April 2012
Tuesday, 20 March 2012
Why the NHL needs a 5 point system for wins...
The NHL is one of the only sports worldwide that uses a point system to determine it's standings. The NHL has evolved greatly over the past few years, with great innovative thinking and bold decision making. Yet the point structure in which deteremines standings and playoff positions is severely flawed.
Stay with me on this.
A team that wins in regulation is a team that has accomplished something much more desirable than a team that has won in overtime or a shootout. It takes more skill and deserves far better compensation to dispatch an opponent in regulation time than in an extended match. It also takes more skill to win a game in an extra period as opposed to a shootout. Team's playing for shootouts should not be rewarded for cowering by receiving the same amount of points a team who lost in an overtime period by being bold and going for it.
Here is what I propose. It might be novel, it might be idiotic, it might be something already thought of and thrown out, but it's something.
Win a game in regulation - 5 pts
Lose a game in regulation - 0 pts
Win a game in overtime - 4 pts
Lose a game in overtime - 2 pts
Win a game in a shootout - 3 pts
Lose a game in a shootout - 1 pt
This structure awards teams who win the game, in whatever fashion. You will always receive more points for a win. Where the major difference lies in the consolation given to teams who lose in extra frames. As stated before, a team who takes a game to overtime should be rewarded, as should a team who takes a game to a shootout. But they should not be equal compensations.
This system would also get rid of those strange 3 point games we see now. Sure an overtime game would be a 6pt game, but a shootout game would only be a 4 point game. This would encourage teams to attack more and be more offensive in overtime periods, making them that much more exciting. Shootouts would now hold more value too, as one shootout win would be equal to three shootout losses as opposed to the difference of two shootout losses we now see.
Yes this would create some rather complicated high numbers, but it would be a better indication of who the better teams truly are. I'm sure that's worth the math. The biggest benefit of this situation is that it stops rewarding teams for losing. The percentage of points earned in losing efforts would decrease significantly.
As of Feb 29th NHL teams had accumalated almost 11 percent of their points from losses. If the 5 point system was applied that number shrinks to 3.94%. Carolina, the worst offender, had almost a quarter of their points (21.31%) from losses. The lowest percentage in the league, Detroit at 3.45%, was the only team to be under what the league average would be in the 5 point system.
And while the standings wouldn't change dramatically, there would be subtle changes. For example, on Feb 29th, the Maple Leafs stood 3 points behind Winnipeg. A deficit that would require at least 2 games to make up. While in the 5 point system, they were only 5 points back of Winnipeg, a deficit that would require only a single regulation win...well maybe the Leafs weren't a great example to use...(sorry Leaf fans, couldn't resist).
The point is, the gaps are more realistic representations of actual game play achievement in a 5 point system.
I will revisit this again at the conclusion of the season to see if it makes that much of a difference in the playoff structure.
Stay with me on this.
A team that wins in regulation is a team that has accomplished something much more desirable than a team that has won in overtime or a shootout. It takes more skill and deserves far better compensation to dispatch an opponent in regulation time than in an extended match. It also takes more skill to win a game in an extra period as opposed to a shootout. Team's playing for shootouts should not be rewarded for cowering by receiving the same amount of points a team who lost in an overtime period by being bold and going for it.
Here is what I propose. It might be novel, it might be idiotic, it might be something already thought of and thrown out, but it's something.
Win a game in regulation - 5 pts
Lose a game in regulation - 0 pts
Win a game in overtime - 4 pts
Lose a game in overtime - 2 pts
Win a game in a shootout - 3 pts
Lose a game in a shootout - 1 pt
This structure awards teams who win the game, in whatever fashion. You will always receive more points for a win. Where the major difference lies in the consolation given to teams who lose in extra frames. As stated before, a team who takes a game to overtime should be rewarded, as should a team who takes a game to a shootout. But they should not be equal compensations.
This system would also get rid of those strange 3 point games we see now. Sure an overtime game would be a 6pt game, but a shootout game would only be a 4 point game. This would encourage teams to attack more and be more offensive in overtime periods, making them that much more exciting. Shootouts would now hold more value too, as one shootout win would be equal to three shootout losses as opposed to the difference of two shootout losses we now see.
Yes this would create some rather complicated high numbers, but it would be a better indication of who the better teams truly are. I'm sure that's worth the math. The biggest benefit of this situation is that it stops rewarding teams for losing. The percentage of points earned in losing efforts would decrease significantly.
As of Feb 29th NHL teams had accumalated almost 11 percent of their points from losses. If the 5 point system was applied that number shrinks to 3.94%. Carolina, the worst offender, had almost a quarter of their points (21.31%) from losses. The lowest percentage in the league, Detroit at 3.45%, was the only team to be under what the league average would be in the 5 point system.
And while the standings wouldn't change dramatically, there would be subtle changes. For example, on Feb 29th, the Maple Leafs stood 3 points behind Winnipeg. A deficit that would require at least 2 games to make up. While in the 5 point system, they were only 5 points back of Winnipeg, a deficit that would require only a single regulation win...well maybe the Leafs weren't a great example to use...(sorry Leaf fans, couldn't resist).
The point is, the gaps are more realistic representations of actual game play achievement in a 5 point system.
I will revisit this again at the conclusion of the season to see if it makes that much of a difference in the playoff structure.
Canada's U18 Prospects
The CHL regular season has come to a close and a small amount of teams have seen their seasons come to an end. There is still a huge opportunity for those undrafted prospects to showcase their ability in a high intensity competition, the U18 World Championship being held April 12-22 in Brno and Znojmo, Czech Republic.
The coaching staff has been named with Jesse Wallin of Red Deer taking the helm, flanked by Todd Gill of Kingston and Gordie Dwyer of the PEI Rocket. Along with the scouting staff of Hockey Canada, they will be charged with putting together the roster who's job it will be to win the U18 Championship for their country.
Canada's roster will be made up of CHL players not playing in the playoffs or whose teams have been eliminated in round 1.
Here are the possibilities:
Eliminated teams
The Locks:
Red Deer Rebels (WHL): Matt Dumba - An almost absolute lock to go in the top 10 of this year's NHL draft, Dumba was the captain of Canada's U18 Team that took home gold at the Ivan Hlinka and should be a lock to wear the C again for Canada this time around. Especially considering his head coach in Red Deer will be running the show this time around.
Erie Otters (OHL): Adam Pelech - A surprise selection for the Ivan Hlinka roster considering Canada's wealth of 94 born defenders, Pelech has improved all year and should be a lock to return to the Red and White.
Sault Saint Marie Greyhounds (OHL): Matt Murray - A standout during the Top Prospect Showcase in Kelowna, Murray is highly regarded with Hockey Canada goaltending consultant and coach, Ron Tugnutt and will have the opportunity to atone for his disapointment in being left off the Ivan Hlinka roster. Even if other goaltenders emerge, Murray can likely only be challenged by Calgary's Chris Driedger, Val d'Or's Tremblay or Oshawa's Altshuler. He's a safe bet to be at least the 2nd goaltender for this squad.
Prince Albert Raiders (WHL): Mike Winther - A speedy forward who has turned heads all season, Winther's game translates well to the International style and he should be a lock to at least crack the 4th line, but could even find himself on a 2nd or 3rd line with potential PP minutes.
Prince George Cougars (WHL): Troy Bourke - A very talented offensive playmaker, Bourke has been thrown to the wolves a bit this year in the WHL but continues to drive forward. He will be highly motivated and ready to play for his country.
The Good Shots
Sault Saint Marie Greyhounds (OHL) - Giancarlo Curcuruto - A very talented and under rated prospect in my opinion, Curcuruto was very close to making the Ivan Hlinka team in the summer and sits with an excellent shot, though not a lock, to make the team this time around.
Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) - Branden Troock - A gritty and hard working power forward, Troock fits a mould that Hockey Canada loves and he could find himself with a role playing spot when all is said and done, especially after proving his clutch ability in an MVP performance at the CHL Top Prospect Game.
Other Players with Slight Hopes
WHL
Lethbridge - Jay Merkley - Underaged playmaker, well know to those in Calgary.
Prince Albert - Josh Morrissey - Very well rounded underaged defender turning heads out west.
Prince George - Alex Forsberg - Undersized and underaged but a highly touted playmaker.
Prince George - Devon Fordyce - Goaltender with short term competition experience and success.
Red Deer - Bolton Pouliot - Not likely to take a spot, but still a goaltending consideration
Seattle - Connor Honey - Gritty ball of energy who never stops competing.
Swift Current - Coda Gordon - Big numbers on bad team, but cooled as season carried on.
OHL
Kingston - Ryan Kujawinski - Big underage centre is one of Todd Gill's go to guys already.
Peterborough - Nick Ritchie - Underage speedster is primed to be an offensive machine.
Peterborough - Slater Koekoek - Injured, highly unlikely to return, but name should be there as he would be on the team if not for being sidelined.
SS Marie - Darnell Nurse - Big hulking underaged defender, worth at least the conversation.
QMJHL
None to consider at this time
The Playoff Teams
WHL
Tri City - Connor Rankin
Everett - Nick Walters, Jari Ericsson
Preferred - Rankin would be a welcome addition to the offense.
Likelihood - Not much of a chance Tri Cities loses this one. Walters likely a bubble player, Ericsson likely gets spoken about but won't crack the roster
Portland - Derrick Pouliot, Brendan Leipsic
Kelowna - Damon Severson, Carter Rigby
Pref: Portland's Pouliot and Leipsic would be shoeins.
Likelihood - Kelowna falls to high powered Winterhawks. Severson stands a real shot at cracking the squad, Rigby will get serious consideration as a role player but likely doesn't make the team in the end.
Kamloops - none
Victoria - Brandon Magee, Steven Hodges, Zane Jones
Pref - The choice of 3 vs. 0 makes it easy.
Likelihood - Victoria doesn't stand much of a chance to win this series, Magee, if healthy has earned a great reputation and should make the team, Hodges and Jones would both fit nicely but likely find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble when the team is chosen.
Spokane - none
Vancouver - none
Calgary - Chris Driedger
Brandon - Ryan Pulock, Eric Roy, Tyrell Seaman
Pref - Wash
Likelihood - Driedger would be a solid number one or two goaltender but Calgary is favored to win this series. Offensively inclined D men Pulock and underager Roy are a nice consolation to chose from, and big strong power forward Seaman adds a nice dynamic as well. Pulock would be a no brainer to crack the D, Roy and Seaman would likely fall victim to the numbers game, but will get long looks.
Edmonton - Reinhart
Kootenay - Reinhart
Pref - Reinhart
Likelihood - Reinhart...Edmonton should steamroll the Ice and will the elder Reinhart would be a lock to make the team, the very young Sam Reinhart will get debated heavily on whether or not they will bring someone so young on board. Depending on what other forwards are available elsewhere, Reinhart could just crack the squad.
Moose Jaw - Morgan Rielly
Regina - Morgan Klimchuk, Chandler Stephenson
Pref - Rielly
Likelihood - No Rielly even if Regina manages to upset the number 2 seed Warriors as he is still injured. Klimchuk and Stephenson are nice to debate, but have little hope of making the final roster.
Medicine Hat - Hunter Shinkaruk
Saskatoon - Ryan Olsen, Dalton Thrower
Pref - Shinkaruk. Who wouldn't want one of the best offensive players available for next year's NHL draft.
Likelihood - An upset is possible here, but unlikely. Thrower is injured but word is he could be back and would be a welcome addition to this team. Olsen has been up and down but could find himself with consideration in the bottom 3-4 forwards for the team.
OHL
London - Andreas Athanasiou
Windsor - Kerby Rychel, Chris Marchese
Pref - Wash
Likelihood - Top seed London rolls on. Kerby Rychel has been one of the most surprising prospects of the season and it all started with his breakout performance in Canada's colors at the Ivan Hlinka. He would be a lock to rejoin the squad. Marchese has been inconsistent but his high energy and physical play could be a welcome addition as well.
Plymouth - Tom Wilson
Guelph - Matt Finn, Scott Kosmachuk
Pref - Guelph
Likelihood - Guelph falls to Plymouth. Finn and Kosmachuk are virtual locks to be named to the team. If Guelph prevails, Wilson also would be a lock.
Kitchener - Matia Marcantuoni
Owen Sound - Gemel Smith, Jarrod Maidens
Pref - Owen Sound
Likelihood - Maidens would be a lock, but since he has barely played all year, safe to assume he is out. Smith's work ethic and small offensive upside are very difficult to match up against and he can really inspire a team with his play. Smith would be a lock. An injury riddled season have left a lot of questions around Marcantuoni.
Sarnia - none
Saginaw - none
Niagra - Jesse Graham
Oshawa - Scott Laughton, Daniel Altshuler
Pref - Oshawa
Likelihood - Oshawa falls to high powered Niagra, Laughton shores up a strong 2nd line for Canada, Altshuler enters the goalie debate. It likely comes down to him, Murray and Tremblay for 2 spots.
Ottawa - Sean Monahan
Belleville - Brenden Gaunce
Pref - Slight lean to Monahan
Likelihood - Canada gets their top line center from this series. Belleville seems poised for a potential upset, Monahan tears up tournament and garners serious hype for next year's draft.
Barrie - Aaron Ekblad
Mississauga - none
Pref - Barrie to fall
Likelihood - Barrie doesn't fall. Ekblad would be a great addition to the backend for Canada and would seize the opportunity, but it doesn't look like it will be this year.
Brampton - none
Sudbury - Matthew Campagna
Pref - Blujus
Likelihood - Campagna's Wolves fall to the Battalion and Campagna finds himself as one of the last players to make the team, or the first not to make the team.
QMJHL
Saint John - none
Cape Breton - William Carrier
Pref - Cape Breton
Likelihood - It would be a moder day miracle if 16th seed Cape Breton took down the reigning Memorial Cup champs. Carrier is one of only a handful of players in the Q who would really have a shot at cracking team Canada as it is. Expect him to be there.
Shawinigan - none
Rouyn-Noranda - Dillon Fournier (injured)
Pref - Fournier
Likelihood - Even with the likelihood that they will fall to the far superior Cataractes, Fournier will have his work cut out for himself to make the Canadian squad, but stranger things have happened.
EDIT - Fournier is out with a shoulder injury and likely isn't able to recover in time to participate.
Blainville-Boisbriand - none
Gatineau - none
Victoriaville - Brandon Whitney
Baie Comeau - Felix Girard
Pref - Wash
Likelihood - Baie Comeau falls, Girard still doesn't make the team.
Quebec - none
Drummondville - Dominic Graham
Pref - Graham to improve the goalie pool
Likelihood - It won't matter, Graham, while talented, can't push one of the other names out.
Halifax - Nathan MacKinnon
Moncton - none
Pref - The young superstar in the making
Likelihood - MacKinnon could have made the WJC squad, but it's not likely he will get his shot to suit up for Canada here as the Mooseheads are poised to roll through Moncton.
Rimouski - none
Val d'Or - Anthony Mantha, Matt Murphy
Pref - Val d'Or
Likelihood - Neither Mantha or Murphy are on the radar enough as of yet to earn a spot on Canada, but watch out for both moving forward.
Chicoutimi - Charles Hudon
Acadie Bathurst - Christophe Lalancette
Pref - Hudon to run the offense
Likelihood - Lalancette gets added to the mix as one of the very few Q league players who could actually stand a chance to make the team.
If I had to predict the squad, I imagine it will look something like this:
Forwards
Monahan, Bourke, Smith
Rychel, Laughton, Kosmachuk
Carierre, Winther, Lalancette
Magee, Reinhart, Rigby
Bubble: Troock, Campagna, Hodges
Defense
Dumba, Finn
Pelech, Pulock
Curcuruto, Severson
Thrower - if healthy
Bubble - Morrissey
Goaltenders
Murray, Tremblay
Bubble - Altshuler, Graham
The coaching staff has been named with Jesse Wallin of Red Deer taking the helm, flanked by Todd Gill of Kingston and Gordie Dwyer of the PEI Rocket. Along with the scouting staff of Hockey Canada, they will be charged with putting together the roster who's job it will be to win the U18 Championship for their country.
Canada's roster will be made up of CHL players not playing in the playoffs or whose teams have been eliminated in round 1.
Here are the possibilities:
Eliminated teams
The Locks:
Red Deer Rebels (WHL): Matt Dumba - An almost absolute lock to go in the top 10 of this year's NHL draft, Dumba was the captain of Canada's U18 Team that took home gold at the Ivan Hlinka and should be a lock to wear the C again for Canada this time around. Especially considering his head coach in Red Deer will be running the show this time around.
Erie Otters (OHL): Adam Pelech - A surprise selection for the Ivan Hlinka roster considering Canada's wealth of 94 born defenders, Pelech has improved all year and should be a lock to return to the Red and White.
Sault Saint Marie Greyhounds (OHL): Matt Murray - A standout during the Top Prospect Showcase in Kelowna, Murray is highly regarded with Hockey Canada goaltending consultant and coach, Ron Tugnutt and will have the opportunity to atone for his disapointment in being left off the Ivan Hlinka roster. Even if other goaltenders emerge, Murray can likely only be challenged by Calgary's Chris Driedger, Val d'Or's Tremblay or Oshawa's Altshuler. He's a safe bet to be at least the 2nd goaltender for this squad.
Prince Albert Raiders (WHL): Mike Winther - A speedy forward who has turned heads all season, Winther's game translates well to the International style and he should be a lock to at least crack the 4th line, but could even find himself on a 2nd or 3rd line with potential PP minutes.
Prince George Cougars (WHL): Troy Bourke - A very talented offensive playmaker, Bourke has been thrown to the wolves a bit this year in the WHL but continues to drive forward. He will be highly motivated and ready to play for his country.
The Good Shots
Sault Saint Marie Greyhounds (OHL) - Giancarlo Curcuruto - A very talented and under rated prospect in my opinion, Curcuruto was very close to making the Ivan Hlinka team in the summer and sits with an excellent shot, though not a lock, to make the team this time around.
Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) - Branden Troock - A gritty and hard working power forward, Troock fits a mould that Hockey Canada loves and he could find himself with a role playing spot when all is said and done, especially after proving his clutch ability in an MVP performance at the CHL Top Prospect Game.
Other Players with Slight Hopes
WHL
Lethbridge - Jay Merkley - Underaged playmaker, well know to those in Calgary.
Prince Albert - Josh Morrissey - Very well rounded underaged defender turning heads out west.
Prince George - Alex Forsberg - Undersized and underaged but a highly touted playmaker.
Prince George - Devon Fordyce - Goaltender with short term competition experience and success.
Red Deer - Bolton Pouliot - Not likely to take a spot, but still a goaltending consideration
Seattle - Connor Honey - Gritty ball of energy who never stops competing.
Swift Current - Coda Gordon - Big numbers on bad team, but cooled as season carried on.
OHL
Kingston - Ryan Kujawinski - Big underage centre is one of Todd Gill's go to guys already.
Peterborough - Nick Ritchie - Underage speedster is primed to be an offensive machine.
Peterborough - Slater Koekoek - Injured, highly unlikely to return, but name should be there as he would be on the team if not for being sidelined.
SS Marie - Darnell Nurse - Big hulking underaged defender, worth at least the conversation.
QMJHL
None to consider at this time
The Playoff Teams
WHL
Tri City - Connor Rankin
Everett - Nick Walters, Jari Ericsson
Preferred - Rankin would be a welcome addition to the offense.
Likelihood - Not much of a chance Tri Cities loses this one. Walters likely a bubble player, Ericsson likely gets spoken about but won't crack the roster
Portland - Derrick Pouliot, Brendan Leipsic
Kelowna - Damon Severson, Carter Rigby
Pref: Portland's Pouliot and Leipsic would be shoeins.
Likelihood - Kelowna falls to high powered Winterhawks. Severson stands a real shot at cracking the squad, Rigby will get serious consideration as a role player but likely doesn't make the team in the end.
Kamloops - none
Victoria - Brandon Magee, Steven Hodges, Zane Jones
Pref - The choice of 3 vs. 0 makes it easy.
Likelihood - Victoria doesn't stand much of a chance to win this series, Magee, if healthy has earned a great reputation and should make the team, Hodges and Jones would both fit nicely but likely find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble when the team is chosen.
Spokane - none
Vancouver - none
Calgary - Chris Driedger
Brandon - Ryan Pulock, Eric Roy, Tyrell Seaman
Pref - Wash
Likelihood - Driedger would be a solid number one or two goaltender but Calgary is favored to win this series. Offensively inclined D men Pulock and underager Roy are a nice consolation to chose from, and big strong power forward Seaman adds a nice dynamic as well. Pulock would be a no brainer to crack the D, Roy and Seaman would likely fall victim to the numbers game, but will get long looks.
Edmonton - Reinhart
Kootenay - Reinhart
Pref - Reinhart
Likelihood - Reinhart...Edmonton should steamroll the Ice and will the elder Reinhart would be a lock to make the team, the very young Sam Reinhart will get debated heavily on whether or not they will bring someone so young on board. Depending on what other forwards are available elsewhere, Reinhart could just crack the squad.
Moose Jaw - Morgan Rielly
Regina - Morgan Klimchuk, Chandler Stephenson
Pref - Rielly
Likelihood - No Rielly even if Regina manages to upset the number 2 seed Warriors as he is still injured. Klimchuk and Stephenson are nice to debate, but have little hope of making the final roster.
Medicine Hat - Hunter Shinkaruk
Saskatoon - Ryan Olsen, Dalton Thrower
Pref - Shinkaruk. Who wouldn't want one of the best offensive players available for next year's NHL draft.
Likelihood - An upset is possible here, but unlikely. Thrower is injured but word is he could be back and would be a welcome addition to this team. Olsen has been up and down but could find himself with consideration in the bottom 3-4 forwards for the team.
OHL
London - Andreas Athanasiou
Windsor - Kerby Rychel, Chris Marchese
Pref - Wash
Likelihood - Top seed London rolls on. Kerby Rychel has been one of the most surprising prospects of the season and it all started with his breakout performance in Canada's colors at the Ivan Hlinka. He would be a lock to rejoin the squad. Marchese has been inconsistent but his high energy and physical play could be a welcome addition as well.
Plymouth - Tom Wilson
Guelph - Matt Finn, Scott Kosmachuk
Pref - Guelph
Likelihood - Guelph falls to Plymouth. Finn and Kosmachuk are virtual locks to be named to the team. If Guelph prevails, Wilson also would be a lock.
Kitchener - Matia Marcantuoni
Owen Sound - Gemel Smith, Jarrod Maidens
Pref - Owen Sound
Likelihood - Maidens would be a lock, but since he has barely played all year, safe to assume he is out. Smith's work ethic and small offensive upside are very difficult to match up against and he can really inspire a team with his play. Smith would be a lock. An injury riddled season have left a lot of questions around Marcantuoni.
Sarnia - none
Saginaw - none
Niagra - Jesse Graham
Oshawa - Scott Laughton, Daniel Altshuler
Pref - Oshawa
Likelihood - Oshawa falls to high powered Niagra, Laughton shores up a strong 2nd line for Canada, Altshuler enters the goalie debate. It likely comes down to him, Murray and Tremblay for 2 spots.
Ottawa - Sean Monahan
Belleville - Brenden Gaunce
Pref - Slight lean to Monahan
Likelihood - Canada gets their top line center from this series. Belleville seems poised for a potential upset, Monahan tears up tournament and garners serious hype for next year's draft.
Barrie - Aaron Ekblad
Mississauga - none
Pref - Barrie to fall
Likelihood - Barrie doesn't fall. Ekblad would be a great addition to the backend for Canada and would seize the opportunity, but it doesn't look like it will be this year.
Brampton - none
Sudbury - Matthew Campagna
Pref - Blujus
Likelihood - Campagna's Wolves fall to the Battalion and Campagna finds himself as one of the last players to make the team, or the first not to make the team.
QMJHL
Saint John - none
Cape Breton - William Carrier
Pref - Cape Breton
Likelihood - It would be a moder day miracle if 16th seed Cape Breton took down the reigning Memorial Cup champs. Carrier is one of only a handful of players in the Q who would really have a shot at cracking team Canada as it is. Expect him to be there.
Shawinigan - none
Rouyn-Noranda - Dillon Fournier (injured)
Pref - Fournier
Likelihood - Even with the likelihood that they will fall to the far superior Cataractes, Fournier will have his work cut out for himself to make the Canadian squad, but stranger things have happened.
EDIT - Fournier is out with a shoulder injury and likely isn't able to recover in time to participate.
Blainville-Boisbriand - none
Gatineau - none
Victoriaville - Brandon Whitney
Baie Comeau - Felix Girard
Pref - Wash
Likelihood - Baie Comeau falls, Girard still doesn't make the team.
Quebec - none
Drummondville - Dominic Graham
Pref - Graham to improve the goalie pool
Likelihood - It won't matter, Graham, while talented, can't push one of the other names out.
Halifax - Nathan MacKinnon
Moncton - none
Pref - The young superstar in the making
Likelihood - MacKinnon could have made the WJC squad, but it's not likely he will get his shot to suit up for Canada here as the Mooseheads are poised to roll through Moncton.
Rimouski - none
Val d'Or - Anthony Mantha, Matt Murphy
Pref - Val d'Or
Likelihood - Neither Mantha or Murphy are on the radar enough as of yet to earn a spot on Canada, but watch out for both moving forward.
Chicoutimi - Charles Hudon
Acadie Bathurst - Christophe Lalancette
Pref - Hudon to run the offense
Likelihood - Lalancette gets added to the mix as one of the very few Q league players who could actually stand a chance to make the team.
If I had to predict the squad, I imagine it will look something like this:
Forwards
Monahan, Bourke, Smith
Rychel, Laughton, Kosmachuk
Carierre, Winther, Lalancette
Magee, Reinhart, Rigby
Bubble: Troock, Campagna, Hodges
Defense
Dumba, Finn
Pelech, Pulock
Curcuruto, Severson
Thrower - if healthy
Bubble - Morrissey
Goaltenders
Murray, Tremblay
Bubble - Altshuler, Graham
Monday, 26 December 2011
WJC Predictions
Another year, another WJC tournament gets underway. Before the tournament begins, I'm going to jump out on a limb and make some predictions
Gold - Sweden
Sweden has the mix to compete with any team at this event. Their defense is as dynamic as could be, they have some intense and hard working offensive talent and they can play an uptempo and energetic style that should be able to wear down any opponent. If they have one weakness, their goaltending has yet to prove that they can steal games internationally, but with the strong defensive corps, that may be a moot point.
Key to Success - Playing their own style and not getting sucked in to the talk
Big Players to Watch: Mika Zibanejad, Oscar Klefbom
Silver - USA
This particular age group has been dominated by American talent, and this tournament will likely be more of the same. The US squad is deep and talented. Jack Campbell has tournament MVP potential and is a likely candidate for another top goaltender award. Emerson Etem is well versed in scorchin up nets in Western Canadian rinks and his supporting cast is potent to say the least. The US powerplay will likely be the most potent in the tournament and with excellent poised and creative defenders like Jon Merrill, there will be a lot of open lanes and puck movement, sending opposition defensive schemes into frenzies.
Key to Success - Walking the fine line between intense and disciplined against other top nations
Big Players to Watch - Charlie Coyle, Jon Merrill
Bronze - Canada
A 3rd place finish would definitely be a huge disapointment for Canadian hockey, but this tournament is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory and in short term competitions anything can happen. Canada starts with a goaltending controversy but Mark Visentin is a capable starter who should settle in well and ease the fears of Canadian hockey fans quickly. If he can't Scott Wedgewood has shown incredible development over the past two seasons and will certainly be able to step right in and impress. The Canadian blueline is stellar, Ryan Murray and Dougie Hamilton are certain to have impressive tournaments, but the whole group will be anchored by Brandon Gormley who is a stud prospect and the kind of player who brings a calming influence to the ice but also knows how to quickly capitalize on chances. Canada is not strong down the middle and this could prove to be a problem as the tournament moves on.
Key to Success - Playing physical, wearing down opponents and using the energy of the home crowds
Big Players to Watch - Ryan Murray, Mark Stone
4th - Finland
Of all the predictions, putting Finland here seems the hardest. This is arguably the best Finnish squad since 2003 in Halifax, and even then it's likely higher in top end skill. Teemu Pulkkinen and Mikael Granlund will lead the charge for the offensive explosive Finns but their offensive talent is deep with the likes of Joel Armia, Miikka Salomaki and young Aleksandr Barkov in the mix as well. The defensive corps has some high end talent as well in all around star Olli Maatta and offensive minded Ville Pokka. There are concerns in net, but the Finns are deep there as well and can find success with any of their goaltenders.
Key to Success - Playing in both directions on all shifts. Not buying into their hype until it's over
Big Players to Watch - Teemu Pulkkinen, Mikael Granlund
5th - Russia
Russia has the talent to repeat, but when it is all said and done they seem to have the most weaknesses of any of the big 5 teams. The top 5 teams all have potential to not only just win the tournament but dominate. Russia's offense will be potent and opportunistic. Making a defensive mistake against Russia will likely result in a puck in your own net. Young Mikhail Grigorenko and Nail Yakupov are poised to turn a lot of heads, even though most scouts will have their eyes already locked dead on to them. Russia has confidence and the skill to back it up, but their D is an area of concern, and the Russians will need to rely on a very structured game to compete against the top nations instead of just running and gunning.
Key to Success - Playing smart two-way hockey, being patient and taking advantage of their opportunities
Big Players to Watch - Mikhail Grigorenko, Nail Yakupov
6th - Slovakia
The Slovaks have some good gritty two-way players and some high end talent with the likes of Tomas Jurco. Their twin towers on D (Marincin and Gernat) will both log major minutes but the Slovaks just don't have the depth to crack the big 5.
7th - Switzerland
The Swiss are another team that just don't have the depth to really push far into the tournament. There isn't much likelihood in any miracle upsets for the Swiss over the top nations this time around, although Gregory Hoffman and Sven Baertschi do put up a very nice one-two punch on offense and they do have the potential to at least scare.
8th - Czech Republic
The Czechs are reeling a bit and missing some of their top talent. With that being said there is a great opportunity for some of their lesser known developing stars to shine. Keep an eye on Tomas Hyka and Radek Faksa as they both have shown strong development over the course of the season so far and are no strangers to playing above their age level.
9th - Latvia
With relegation a likely result for the Latvians in this tournament, the team will not be the pushovers they have in recent years and may be able to salvage a return to the tournament next year with some timely efforts. Zemgus Girgensons and Teddy Blueger will garner a ton of attention and have an excellent opportunity to showcase their skill sets for the abundance of NHL scouts in attendance.
10th - Denmark
The Danish program continues to move forward, but this tournament will likely be chalked up to an experience builder for the program. The country continues to produce talent and fans will be surprised with the level of talent from top to bottom. Niklas Jensen will have to carry most of the offensive load for a team that will have to play some tough and disciplined defensive systems if they want to keep scores tight.
Gold - Sweden
Sweden has the mix to compete with any team at this event. Their defense is as dynamic as could be, they have some intense and hard working offensive talent and they can play an uptempo and energetic style that should be able to wear down any opponent. If they have one weakness, their goaltending has yet to prove that they can steal games internationally, but with the strong defensive corps, that may be a moot point.
Key to Success - Playing their own style and not getting sucked in to the talk
Big Players to Watch: Mika Zibanejad, Oscar Klefbom
Silver - USA
This particular age group has been dominated by American talent, and this tournament will likely be more of the same. The US squad is deep and talented. Jack Campbell has tournament MVP potential and is a likely candidate for another top goaltender award. Emerson Etem is well versed in scorchin up nets in Western Canadian rinks and his supporting cast is potent to say the least. The US powerplay will likely be the most potent in the tournament and with excellent poised and creative defenders like Jon Merrill, there will be a lot of open lanes and puck movement, sending opposition defensive schemes into frenzies.
Key to Success - Walking the fine line between intense and disciplined against other top nations
Big Players to Watch - Charlie Coyle, Jon Merrill
Bronze - Canada
A 3rd place finish would definitely be a huge disapointment for Canadian hockey, but this tournament is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory and in short term competitions anything can happen. Canada starts with a goaltending controversy but Mark Visentin is a capable starter who should settle in well and ease the fears of Canadian hockey fans quickly. If he can't Scott Wedgewood has shown incredible development over the past two seasons and will certainly be able to step right in and impress. The Canadian blueline is stellar, Ryan Murray and Dougie Hamilton are certain to have impressive tournaments, but the whole group will be anchored by Brandon Gormley who is a stud prospect and the kind of player who brings a calming influence to the ice but also knows how to quickly capitalize on chances. Canada is not strong down the middle and this could prove to be a problem as the tournament moves on.
Key to Success - Playing physical, wearing down opponents and using the energy of the home crowds
Big Players to Watch - Ryan Murray, Mark Stone
4th - Finland
Of all the predictions, putting Finland here seems the hardest. This is arguably the best Finnish squad since 2003 in Halifax, and even then it's likely higher in top end skill. Teemu Pulkkinen and Mikael Granlund will lead the charge for the offensive explosive Finns but their offensive talent is deep with the likes of Joel Armia, Miikka Salomaki and young Aleksandr Barkov in the mix as well. The defensive corps has some high end talent as well in all around star Olli Maatta and offensive minded Ville Pokka. There are concerns in net, but the Finns are deep there as well and can find success with any of their goaltenders.
Key to Success - Playing in both directions on all shifts. Not buying into their hype until it's over
Big Players to Watch - Teemu Pulkkinen, Mikael Granlund
5th - Russia
Russia has the talent to repeat, but when it is all said and done they seem to have the most weaknesses of any of the big 5 teams. The top 5 teams all have potential to not only just win the tournament but dominate. Russia's offense will be potent and opportunistic. Making a defensive mistake against Russia will likely result in a puck in your own net. Young Mikhail Grigorenko and Nail Yakupov are poised to turn a lot of heads, even though most scouts will have their eyes already locked dead on to them. Russia has confidence and the skill to back it up, but their D is an area of concern, and the Russians will need to rely on a very structured game to compete against the top nations instead of just running and gunning.
Key to Success - Playing smart two-way hockey, being patient and taking advantage of their opportunities
Big Players to Watch - Mikhail Grigorenko, Nail Yakupov
6th - Slovakia
The Slovaks have some good gritty two-way players and some high end talent with the likes of Tomas Jurco. Their twin towers on D (Marincin and Gernat) will both log major minutes but the Slovaks just don't have the depth to crack the big 5.
7th - Switzerland
The Swiss are another team that just don't have the depth to really push far into the tournament. There isn't much likelihood in any miracle upsets for the Swiss over the top nations this time around, although Gregory Hoffman and Sven Baertschi do put up a very nice one-two punch on offense and they do have the potential to at least scare.
8th - Czech Republic
The Czechs are reeling a bit and missing some of their top talent. With that being said there is a great opportunity for some of their lesser known developing stars to shine. Keep an eye on Tomas Hyka and Radek Faksa as they both have shown strong development over the course of the season so far and are no strangers to playing above their age level.
9th - Latvia
With relegation a likely result for the Latvians in this tournament, the team will not be the pushovers they have in recent years and may be able to salvage a return to the tournament next year with some timely efforts. Zemgus Girgensons and Teddy Blueger will garner a ton of attention and have an excellent opportunity to showcase their skill sets for the abundance of NHL scouts in attendance.
10th - Denmark
The Danish program continues to move forward, but this tournament will likely be chalked up to an experience builder for the program. The country continues to produce talent and fans will be surprised with the level of talent from top to bottom. Niklas Jensen will have to carry most of the offensive load for a team that will have to play some tough and disciplined defensive systems if they want to keep scores tight.
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