Thursday 3 May 2012

2012 IIHF World Championship Preview

For those of you who don't me that well, or at all, I am a passionate fan of the sport of hockey with a background in coaching and scouting.  I tend to write about all sorts of topics from scouting prospects and junior leagues to ideas for rule changes and opinions on NHL issues.  What most people don't know, is that my biggest passion is the international hockey scene.  Having been fortunate enough to see a lot of the hockey playing world and experience the love for the game in so many different cultural settings has only amplified this love.

When I was younger, I looked at the World Championships as most Canadian hockey fans do.  It's almost a second thought, no one seems to care if we win or lose, although we expect to win but if we don't oh well we didn't send our best players.  Internationally, the game has come a long long way in my experience with it.  The major hockey playing nations such as Russia, Canada, Sweden, Finland, didn't have to send their best players to be competitive or even challenge for medals.  Those days are gone and the gap between the relegation teams or Division 1 teams and the top group is substantially smaller than it has ever been.

The World Championships is a gift to hockey fans every year, a gift that is still uncherished in North America.  I leave for Finland tomorrow afternoon and I can't express how fond of and excited for this tournament I now get every year.  Sure, part of that is that I get to adventure off to European cities, but that isn't anything new in my life since I ventured down this path.  What really gets me going is how these European cities are flooded with hockey tourism.  The life, the atmosphere, the passion.  When I moved to Finland in 2006, they had only ever won the World Championships once, in 1995.  You couldn't go in a bar in the entire country that didn't have some sort of recognition of that glorious victory.  The players, coaches and staff of that team were legends and revered by the younger generations who grew up with aspirations of matching this achievement.  Well, that generation did just that last year and the party that ensued was epic at a level that only the Finns could pull off.

People in North America don't realize how much this tournament means to the rest of the world, but we're starting to grasp it.  Ask the people of Halifax about Latvians and every single one will have a hilarious story about a run in with a boistorous and excitied Maroon-cladded fan from the 2008 World Championship.  Or the people of Quebec City who saw their Collisee flooded with Russian hockey fans.  Hockey fans are amazing people who breed outstanding legends all over the world.  Get caught up in that passion, keep a close eye on this event, even the countries you don't think can play hockey, can, and play it very well.  Last year's tournament has one game that sticks out in my mind as being something I wasn't prepared for and it was the intensity of a budding hockey rivalry between the two emerging hockey nations of Austria and Slovenia.  Neither squad boasted an NHL player, but both were loaded with passionate and talented young professionals and the game was more than worth the price of admission.

With all of that being said, here are some predictions and players to keep an eye on (keep in mind teams can continue to add players or remove from their roster at this point):

Belarus
Not considered an elite hockey nation, Belarus has a strong hockey playing population and with the addition of the KHL to Minsk, the popularity of the sport continues to gain momentum.  It has been 10 years since Belarus stunned Sweden in the quarterfinals of the Salt Lake City Olympics but the goaltender that stole that show, Andrei Mezin, is back.  Add explosive offensive talent Mikhail Grabovski of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Belarus is once again an absolute wildcard with the potential to beat anyone if they put it all together again.

Keep an Eye On: Sergei Drozd
Potential Young Star: Roman Graborenko
Prediction: 8th

Canada
Always the powerhouse and always in the mix as far as favorites for this event go, Canada has not been great in recent years but a young, hungry roster and the promise of potential Olympic team positions (should the NHL agree to send players) could be a winning combination for Hockey Canada brass.  A gold medal may be tough to come by, but you can bet this roster will showcase the Canadian product well and should contend for a medal.  A tournament win and a Finland failure to medal would leave Canada as the top seed for the Sochi games.

Keep an Eye On: Too many to mention but Jordan Eberle and Jeff Skinner seem ready to make a mark on this event.
Potential Young Star: Ryan Murray - a likely top 5 pick in this year's NHL draft.
Prediction: 2nd

Czech Republic
This is a very good offensive entry for the Czechs but they are lacking a bit on the other side of the puck.  David Krejci and Tomas Plekanec will lead the charge in creating that offense and Milan Michalek is a prime target to finish off some of those opportunities but the they will need to rely on strong systems play with a relativley defensive minded group on the backend and not a lot of puck movers.  Somebody always seems to step up for the Czechs though and it could very well be the grizzled old vet himself, Petr Nedved.  Yes, that Petr Nedved.  Nedved is actually making his Czech team debut after having difected to Canada in the early 90s.  Nedved has completed his 5th straight season in the Czech league, making him IIHF eligible to represent his home country.  It will be great to see him at this stage again.

Keep an Eye On: Petr Caslava
Potential Young Star: Tomas Vincour
Prediction: 5th

Denmark
One of the true emerging hockey nations, Denmark's program has come a long way and they are no longer the push overs of old.  Denmark boasts a ton of technical skill and speed which could make them one of the more exciting teams to watch during this tournament.  Frans Nielsen, Jannik Hansen and Lars Eller are the big names that will lead the way for the Danes, but don't overlook the young and talented Philip Larsen on defence.  The Danes have learned a lot from the Swedes and Finns when it comes to developing talent and with two goaltenders working in the "Finnish goaltending factory", Denmark could make some noise.

Keep an Eye On: Jesper Jensen (there's two of them, so he/they should be everywhere!)
Potential Young Star: Philip Larsen
Prediction: 10th

Finland
The main host of this year's event, Finland is also the defending Champion, and the hype for this event has been off the charts in Suomi.  Finland has a love for sport that few countries can match, and the crown jewel of sports for the Finns is jaakiekko (ice hockey).  Helsinki will be rocking and the Koskenkorva will be flowing.  The roster is loaded with players with National team experience.  Finland should play a similar two-way gritty style that helped them win last year's title.  They have exceptional goaltending, reliable defence and a versatile forward group.  They should be able to match up against everyone and could prove to be a tough team to knock off during the elimination stages of the tournament.  Finland should compete for a medal.

Keep an Eye On: Antti Pihlstrom
Potential Young Star: Mikeal Granlund...not a potential star....already a star
Prediction: 3rd

France
Many would be surprised by the growing talent base in France.  Their program from the grass roots up has made huge strides in the past 5 years and they continue to show potential to be a breakout power in the not too distant future.  A strong international result could be a huge boost to the program that continues to find momentum without one.  They are producing top level professional talent and cultivating it well.  Their proximity to countries like Switzerland has also helped their competition levels.  They may even boast a first round NHL prospect this year if Timothe Bozon hears his named called in June in Pittsburgh.

Keep an Eye On: Cristobal Huet (yup, he's still there)
Potential Young Star: Stephane Da Costa
Prediction: 14th

Germany
Germany used to have to rely on strategy to compete with the top teams in international play.  They would trap up and play a very boring and frustrating style.  They have ventured away from that and it has paid major dividends with their youth systems.  While other countries have caught up to them, Germany continuously produces top level talent, and they are starting to reap the rewards of this.  This team will still be led by the veterans that always seem to represent their country but will be sprinkled with glimpses of the future, a future that is very bright and a long time coming.  The time might not be now for them, but it's not far away and they will impress and surprise.

Keep an Eye On: Philip Gogula
Potential Young Star: Dennis Reul
Prediction: 11th

Italy
Italy has benefited from some good decision making, an organized professional structure and the 2006 Olympics.  The country known for their soccer players has started to see some of those athletes move over to hockey.  Their community is tight and they have gained a lot from having import professionals come over and raise the level of their leagues.  They can know put together very competitive national teams at multiple age groups and are starting to forge a style and reputation for their players that is almost the polar opposite of how we see their soccer players.  The gritty and rugged Italians (weird right?) aren't intimidated anymore and are on the road to producing a higher and higher calibre of player domestically.  Not likely a threat to the major nations for some time yet, they are on the hockey map and will not be going anywhere anytime soon.

Keep an Eye On: Andreas Bernard
Potential Young Star: Marco Insam
Prediction: 15th

Kazakhstan
The Kazaks will actually have one of the most experienced rosters coming into this tournament.  After a few years out of the top group, they return with a group that is very familiar with the task at hand.  It will be an uphill climb for Kazakhstan to avoid the relegation stages but they will be capable of winning games if taken lightly.

Keep an Eye On: Dmitri Upper
Potential Young Star: Konstantin Savenkov
Prediction: 16th

Latvia
Latvia has become the pride and joy of this tournament in recent years, not just because of an improving level on the ice and certainly not because of their results, but because of the passion the team and their fans bring to the host cities every year.  They don't quite have the star power to rely on that they did in the days of Sandis Ozolinsh, Arturs Irbe and the late Sergei Zholtok but their depth is much improved and that star power isn't far away form returning with the young prospects such as Zemgus Girgensons and Teodors Blugers waiting in the wings.  They will have the experience of former NHL top coach, Ted Nolan and some young faces ready to take over the reigns.  They likely won't be able to knock off any of the top teams, but they will try and they always prove to be one of the most entertaining and likeable aspects of this yearly event.

Keep an Eye On: Kaspars Daugavins
Potential Young Star: Roberts Bukarts
Prediction: 12th

Norway
It has always boggled the mind how Sweden and Finland can be so good at this sport and how Norway lags so far behind.  Norway finally seems to be serious about the sport and they now prove to be a serious opponent for every nation.  In the 90s Norway was regarded as a stat padding opponent, but now Norway competes well at every level.  Their professional leagues are outstanding and improving year after year and their youth system continues to impress with the quality of their young prospects.  Norway has leap frogged a ton of nations into becoming one of the next nations on the cusp of hockey's elite group.

Keep an Eye On: Jonas Holos
Potential Young Star: Andreas Martinsen
Prediction: 13th

Russia
Their likely isn't another nation, other than perhaps Finland, who will be more fired up to win at this tournament than Russia.  The push for Sochi is becoming very clear, and like Vancouver was for Canada, a gold in hockey would mean a success for the hosts.  That push is clearly amplifying and the Russians will come out swinging.  They have the goaltending with Semeon Varlamov, they have the scoring forwards with arguably the most exciting and most productive offensive players in the world in Pavel Datsyuk and Evgeni Malkin but they also have a ton of players with something to gain, and that's what makes them scary. 

Keep an Eye On: Datsyuk and Malkin (apart they are pretty good, together they can melt your mind)
Potential Young Stars: Evgeni Kuznetsov has gotten a ton of love and hype but Vladimir Tarasenko might just be better. Either way that's an excellent one-two punch of talented youth.
Prediction: 4th

Slovakia
For such a small nation, the Slovaks have one of the best percentages of developing players for elite professional hockey than anywhere else.  Slovakia is in hockey's elite group of nations and always seem to ice competitive and dangerous squads.  Having big Zdeno Chara anchoring their team will certainly help.  Their has been a gradual changing of the guard for Slovakian ice hockey and they will have to without the big offensive guns they used to threaten with but their replacements are on the way and this could prove to a very big moment for some of those players.  Slovakia always seems to impress when they shouldn't and this is a year where they shouldn't be able to play with the top teams, but I think they will do so anyways.  Mark them down as a wildcard and potentially the most underrated as well.

Keep an Eye On: Anyone you can see around Zdeno Chara...
Potential Young Star: Tomas Tatar
Prediction: 7th

Sweden
The other hosts of this event, Stockholm will host the B pool this year before taking over and switching with Finland for next year as the main host.  The home cooking should be a welcome boost to a team that has complimented its aging stars with examples of their world class development system.  The Alfredssons, Franzens and Zetterbergs will still lead this team, but it will be the Landeskogs, Karlssons and Hedmans that will hold the fate of the Swedes successes.  If Sweden has one weakness it will be in goal, but calling Jhonas Enroth a weakness would not be wise.  The diminutive netminder has been stealing games for his country for years, and let's not forget he almost stole a job from Ryan Miller.  The Swedes are deep, versatile and dangerous, how they mesh could be the biggest obstacle.  They will be looking to give back some of the torment the Finns subjected them to after losing 6-1 in last year's gold medal game, what better place to extract that revenge than the Finnish capital.  Anything less than a medal for Sweden would be shocking.

Keep an Eye On: Jonas Brodin
Potential Young Star: Calle Jarnkrok
Prediction: Gold

Switzerland
The Swiss are still a couple years off from being able to capitalize on their young stars like Nino Niederreiter and Sven Bartschi but they still boast an very good transitional defensive group, led by New York Islanders captain, Mark Streit.  Nino will continue to rake in the experience but shouldn't expect a fairy tale just yet.  The Swiss will be a force to be reckoned with in the not too distant future but for now they are going to grind some games out and force opponents to play their style.  They should float around the middle of the pack all tournament long and will not be a push over by any stretch of the imagination but also lack the depth to beat any of the top nations, especially if those nations are firing on all cylinders.

Keep an Eye On: Roman Wick
Potential Young Star: Nino Niederreiter and Luca Sbisa
Prediction: 9th

USA
The US program does a very good job of fielding young competitive teams every year but they, like Canada, use this program to tryout players for the Olympic and World Cup events.  It is tough with so many of the top talents from your system playing in the NHL playoffs still or recovering from the grueling season.  They are not lacking for talent but only have 6-9 of their top players on this roster.  With that being said, they are deep, young and they do have some emerging talents on their roster.  They might not be the big bad Americans we saw in the 2010 Olympics, but there is some of that element present and some new dimensions that could prove to be very beneficial in the international style of play.

Keep an Eye On: Cam Atkinson, Bobby Ryan, Paul Stastny
Potential Young Star: Justin Faulk
Prediction: 6th



As much as I love junior hockey, top level professional hockey and the NHL, I have learned to love this event like a European.  As exciting as the NHL playoffs are, they don't do as much for hockey worldwide as this event does.  However, the fact that both are going on simultaneously and will this year be broadcast to more countries than ever is huge and will only make for better quality of the game and more opportunities for players, coaches and fans.  Some may disagree with me, but my experience has led me to believe that International hockey truly is the game at its purest.

I will continue to blog from Helsinki on the games and from the Coaching Symposiums over the next couple of weeks.  I promise they will be shorter and easier to read, haha!

Follow me on twitter @rossmaclean for less wordy updates!

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