Saturday 31 March 2012

Friday's U18 Depth Chart Update

Friday night update:

1. Sean Monahan or Brendan Gaunce (Guaranteed one of these players, barring injury) - 3-2 series lead for Monahan and the 67s.
2. Charles Hudon (unlikely, considering Chicoutimi has a 3-2 series lead at this point) - game 6 Sunday, 7 on Tuesday if necessary.
3. Scott Laughton (in a tough series with Niagara, winning would be an upset, he should be here) - game 5 goes tonight, game 6 Sunday, game 7 Tuesday if need be.
4. Jarrod Maidens (Attack are out but Maidens hasn't played in a long while and likely won't start at the U18s)
5. Gemel Smith (Maidens teammate on the Attack is a lock to make the team now that they are out)
6. Kerby Rychel (Windsor is now out, Rychel is a sure bet)
7. Mike Winther (Already eliminated, should be on the team)
8. Troy Bourke (Cougars didn't qualify for the playoffs, Bourke should be on the team)
9. Tom Wilson or Scott Kosmachuk (Close series, one or the other likely a lock in a similar role) 2-2 series game 5 goes saturday
10. Sam Reinhart (Ice are out, he's free to join, would be a smart choice)
11. Brandon Magee (Royals gone, but Magee remains on the injured list with an undisclosed ailment, if he's healthy he should be included, big asterix here for now)
12. William Carrier (Cape Breton got thrown to the Sea Dogs, Carrier has good potential to be one of the only Q representatives on this team)
13. Chris Marchese (Windsor's out, Marchese has a real shot after strong second half of OHL season)
14. Matthew Campagna (Sudbury is done, Campagna a serious consideration for Canada)
15. Coda Gordon (Swift Current didn't make the playoffs, I'm not huge on him, but Hockey Canada may disagree with me....it's happened before)
16. Christophe Lalancette (Acadie-Bathurst is on the bubble of elimination, Lalancette could be a consideration) Down 3-2, series will wrap up by Tuesday at the latest.
17. Steven Hodges (Royals are out, Hodges deserves debate)
18. Ryan Olsen (Could be anywhere from 16 to 21 on this list, Blades are out, Olsen on the bubble at least)
19. Branden Troock (People love him, he's got a shot and his team is done)
20. Carter Rigby (Good character player, would be an asset in short term competition, Kelowna is done)
21. Chandler Stephenson (Just got knocked out, really playing with the idea of moving up the depth chrat as he has quietly been a very consistent player in the WHL this year)
Other bubble forwards: Alex Forsberg, Morgan Klimchuk, Connor Honey, Zane Jones, Anthony Mantha

Defense
1. Matt Dumba (lock, likely captain as well)
2. Matt Finn (Guelph in a serious battle with Plymouth, underdogs but too close to call so far) Series locked at 2 games a piece, resumes Saturday.
3. Adam Pelech (Count him in)
4. Damon Severson (Rockets are out, Severson a lock now)
5. Gianluca Curcuruto (Team is out, he had a strong showing at summer U18 camp, good shot here)
6. Brett Kulak (In a big series battle with Spokane, currently all knotted up, keep an eye out) Tied 2-2, game 5 goes tonight
7. Jesse Graham (Niagara has their hands full right now but is favored to move on) Still locked at 2, game 5 is set for Saturday.
8. Aaron Ekbald (Barrie is knotted up with the Majors 2-2, Ekbald gets serious consideration should Barrie lose out) Game 5 on the schedule for Saturday.
9. Josh Morrissey (Already out, chances are slim...but you're saying there's a chance)
10. Reid Gow (Spokane is tied 2-2 with Giants, in the conversation if they can't pull it out) Game 5 - Friday
Other bubble defenders: Nic Walters, Darnell Nurse, Matt Murphy, Cole Wedman

Goaltenders
1. Chris Driedger (Hitmen out, Driedger should be the starter for Canada, however not everyone is as high on him as I am)
2. Matthew Murray (The Soo is out, Murray has a lot of fans since the Top Prospect Game, battle between top 4 goalies will be tight)
3. Francois Tremblay (Pretty strong shot at making this team either way, team is already out)
4. Daniel Althsuler (Already backstopped Canada to one U18 Gold Medal, showing very well in OHL playoffs which could make point moot if Oshawa upsets Niagara) Tied 2-2 in series, game 5 goes tonight.
5. Brandon Whitney (Likely the odd man out of just the debate, but anything can happen, team was upset in 1st round of Quebec league playoffs....every team could use a Martimer....)
Bubble Goalies: Dominic Graham

Thursday 29 March 2012

Another day, another Team Canada U18 shortlist update!

Calgary, Kelowna, Kootenay, Windsor and Drummondville all saw their seasons end last night, meaning another group of players have been eliminated from contention for a spot on Team Canada for the U18 tournament, where the roster is generally made up of players eliminated from playoff contention in round one of the CHL playoffs, or whose teams don't qualify.

Here is my updated depth chart:

Forward
1. Sean Monahan or Brendan Gaunce (Guaranteed one of these players, barring injury) - 2-2 series resumes tonight.
2. Charles Hudon (unlikely, considering Chicoutimi has a 3-1 series lead at this point) - game 5 tonight.
3. Scott Laughton (in a tough series with Niagara, winning would be an upset, he should be here) - game 5 goes tonight.
4. Jarrod Maidens (Attack will likely get eliminated, currently down 3-1 but Maidens hasn't played in a long while and likely won't start at the U18s)
5. Gemel Smith (Maidens teammate on the Attack is a lock to make the team should they fall soon)
6. Kerby Rychel (London knocked Windsor out last night, Rychel is a sure bet)
7. Mike Winther (Already eliminated, should be on the team)
8. Troy Bourke (Cougars didn't qualify for the playoffs, Bourke should be on the team)
9. Tom Wilson or Scott Kosmachuk (Close series, one or the other likely a lock in a similar role) 2-2 series game 5 goes saturday
10. Sam Reinhart (Ice are out, he's free to join, would be a smart choice)
11. Matia Marcantuoni (Injured but talking about coming back soon, even so Kitchener has a 3-1 lead over Owen Sound and isn't likely to give up the series) game 5 goes tonight
12. Brandon Magee (Royals lost their series tonight, but Magee remains on the injured list with an undisclosed ailment, if he's healthy he should be included, big asterix here for now)
13. William Carrier (Cape Breton got thrown to the Sea Dogs, Carrier has good potential to be one of the only Q representatives on this team)
14. Chris Marchese (Windsor's out, Marchese has a real shot after strong second half of OHL season)
15. Matthew Campagna (Sudbury is done, Campagna a serious consideration for Canada)
16. Coda Gordon (Swift Current didn't make the playoffs, I'm not huge on him, but Hockey Canada may disagree with me....it's happened before)
17. Christophe Lalancette (Acadie-Bathurst is on the bubble of elimination, Lalancette could be a consideration) Down 3-1, series continues tonight.
18. Steven Hodges (Royals are out, Hodges deserves debate)
19. Ryan Olsen (Could be anywhere from 16 to 21 on this list, Blades are out, Olsen on the bubble at least)
20. Branden Troock (People love him, he's got a shot and his team is done)
21. Carter Rigby (Good character player, would be an asset in short term competition, Kelowna is done)
22. Chandler Stephenson (Down 3-1 to 2nd seed Moose Jaw, a real possibility) Game 5 goes tonight
Other bubble forwards: Alex Forsberg, Morgan Klimchuk, Connor Honey, Zane Jones, Anthony Mantha

Defense
1. Matt Dumba (lock, likely captain as well)
2. Morgan Rielly (injured but talking comeback, too bad for Canada Moose Jaw is up 3-1 and likely moving on even if he is ready to play)
3. Matt Finn (Guelph in a serious battle with Plymouth, underdogs but too close to call so far) Series locked at 2 games a piece, resumes Saturday.
4. Adam Pelech (Count him in)
5. Damon Severson (Rockets are out, Severson a lock now)
6. Gianluca Curcuruto (Team is out, he had a strong showing at summer U18 camp, good shot here)
7. Brett Kulak (In a big series battle with Spokane, currently all knotted up, keep an eye out)  Tied 2-2, game 5 goes tonight
8. Jesse Graham (Niagara has their hands full right now but is favored to move on) Still locked at 2, game 5 is set for Friday night.
9. Aaron Ekbald (Barrie is knotted up with the Majors 2-2, Ekbald gets serious consideration should Barrie lose out)  Game 5 on the schedule for Saturday.
10. Josh Morrissey (Already out, chances are slim...but you're saying there's a chance)
11. Reid Gow (Spokane is tied 2-2 with Giants, in the conversation if they can't pull it out) Game 5 - Friday
Other bubble defenders: Nic Walters, Darnell Nurse, Matt Murphy, Cole Wedman

Goaltenders
1. Chris Driedger (Hitmen out, Driedger should be the starter for Canada, however not everyone is as high on him as I am)
2. Matthew Murray (The Soo is out, Murray has a lot of fans since the Top Prospect Game, battle between top 4 goalies will be tight)
3. Francois Tremblay (Pretty strong shot at making this team either way, team is already out)
4. Daniel Althsuler (Already backstopped Canada to one U18 Gold Medal, showing very well in OHL playoffs which could make point moot if Oshawa upsets Niagara) Tied 2-2 in series, game 5 goes tonight.
5. Brandon Whitney (Likely the odd man out of just the debate, but anything can happen, team was upset in 1st round of Quebec league playoffs....every team could use a Martimer....)
Bubble Goalies: Dominic Graham

Wednesday 28 March 2012

Updated Team Canada Shortlist - March 28

Several teams have now been eliminated from the CHL playoffs cutting down the list for Team Canada at the U18 World Championships.

Here is an updated depth chart for players deserving consideration:

Forward
1. Sean Monahan or Brendan Gaunce (Guaranteed one of these players, barring injury)
2. Charles Hudon (unlikely, considering Chicoutimi has a 3-1 series lead at this point)
3. Scott Laughton (in a tough series with Niagara, winning would be an upset, he should be here)
4. Jarrod Maidens (Attack will likely get eliminated, currently down 3-1 but Maidens hasn't played in a long while and likely won't start at the U18s)
5. Gemel Smith (Maidens teammate on the Attack is a lock to make the team should they fall soon)
6. Kerby Rychel (Down 3-0 to London, expect Warren's kid to be there)
7. Mike Winther (Already eliminated, should be on the team)
8. Troy Bourke (Cougars didn't qualify for the playoffs, Bourke should be on the team)
9. Tom Wilson or Scott Kosmachuk (Close series, one or the other likely a lock in a similar role)
10. Sam Reinhart (Will lead the youth movement when Ice finish up against top seed Oil Kings)
11. Andreas Athanasiou (Highly unlikely London blows their 3-0 series lead, don't expect him to be there)
12. Matia Marcantuoni (Injured but talking about coming back soon, even so Kitchener has a 3-1 lead over Owen Sound and isn't likely to give up the series)
13. Brendan Leipsic (Up 3-0 to Kelowna, Leipsic's Winterhawks will move on and Leipsic won't be in Brno)
14. Brandon Magee (Royals lost their series tonight, but Magee remains on the injured list with an undisclosed ailment, if he's healthy he should be included, big asterix here for now)
15. William Carrier (Cape Breton got thrown to the Sea Dogs, Carrier has good potential to be one of the only Q representatives on this team)
16. Chris Marchese (Windsor is clinging on but London is too strong, Marchese has a real shot after strong second half of OHL season)
17. Matthew Campagna (Sudbury is done, Campagna a serious consideration for Canada)
18. Coda Gordon (Swift Current didn't make the playoffs, I'm not huge on him, but Hockey Canada may disagree with me....it's happened before)
19. Christophe Lalancette (Acadie-Bathurst is on the bubble of elimination, Lalancette could be a consideration)
20. Steven Hodges (Royals are out, Hodges deserves debate)
21. Ryan Olsen (Could be anywhere from 16 to 21 on this list, Blades are out, Olsen on the bubble at least)
22. Branden Troock (People love him, he's got a shot and his team is done)
23. Carter Rigby (Good character player, would be an asset in short term competition, team down 0-3 to high powered Portland)
24. Tyrel Seaman (Surprisingly up 3-1 over 3rd seated Calgary, bubble either way)
25. Chandler Stephenson (Down 3-1 to 2nd seed Moose Jaw, a real possibility)
Other bubble forwards: Alex Forsberg, Morgan Klimchuk, Connor Honey, Zane Jones, Anthony Mantha

Defense
1. Matt Dumba (lock, likely captain as well)
2. Morgan Rielly (injured but talking comeback, too bad for Canada Moose Jaw is up 3-1 and likely moving on even if he is ready to play)
3. Griffin Reinhart (not likely with top seed Oil Kings having their way with Kootenay)
4. Matt Finn (Guelph in a serious battle with Plymouth, underdogs but too close to call so far)
5. Derrick Pouliot (Unlikely, team up 3-0 and heavily favored)
6. Adam Pelech (Count him in)
7. Ryan Pulock (Up 3-1 in potential upset series win, don't rule him out yet, but chances of him playing for Canada are fading)
8. Damon Severson (Down 0-3, strong shot at being named to team)
9. Gianluca Curcuruto (Team is out, he had a strong showing at summer U18 camp, good shot here)
10. Eric Roy (Same situation as Pulock)
11. Brett Kulak (In a big series battle with Spokane, currently all knotted up, keep an eye out)
12. Jesse Graham (Niagara has their hands full right now but is favored to move on)
13. Aaron Ekbald (Barrie is knotted up with the Majors 2-2, Ekbald gets serious consideration should Barrie lose out)
14. Josh Morrissey (Already out, chances are slim...but you're saying there's a chance)
15. Reid Gow (Spokane is tied 2-2 with Giants, in the conversation if they can't pull it out)
Other bubble defenders: Nic Walters, Darnell Nurse, Matt Murphy, Cole Wedman

Goaltenders
1. Chris Driedger (Hitmen facing elimination, Driedger should be the starter for Canada if they don't come back, however not everyone is as high on him as I am)
2. Matthew Murray (The Soo is out, Murray has a lot of fans since the Top Prospect Game, battle between top 4 goalies will be tight)
3. Francois Tremblay (Pretty strong shot at making this team either way, team is already out)
4. Daniel Althsuler (Already backstopped Canada to one U18 Gold Medal, showing very well in OHL playoffs which could make point moot if Oshawa upsets Niagara)
5. Brandon Whitney (Likely the odd man out of just the debate, but anything can happen, team was upset in 1st round of Quebec league playoffs....every team could use a Martimer....)
Bubble Goalies: Dominic Graham

Tuesday 20 March 2012

Why the NHL needs a 5 point system for wins...

The NHL is one of the only sports worldwide that uses a point system to determine it's standings.  The NHL has evolved greatly over the past few years, with great innovative thinking and bold decision making.  Yet the point structure in which deteremines standings and playoff positions is severely flawed.

Stay with me on this.

A team that wins in regulation is a team that has accomplished something much more desirable than a team that has won in overtime or a shootout.  It takes more skill and deserves far better compensation to dispatch an opponent in regulation time than in an extended match.  It also takes more skill to win a game in an extra period as opposed to a shootout.  Team's playing for shootouts should not be rewarded for cowering by receiving the same amount of points a team who lost in an overtime period by being bold and going for it.

Here is what I propose.  It might be novel, it might be idiotic, it might be something already thought of and thrown out, but it's something.

Win a game in regulation - 5 pts
Lose a game in regulation - 0 pts
Win a game in overtime - 4 pts
Lose a game in overtime - 2 pts
Win a game in a shootout - 3 pts
Lose a game in a shootout  - 1 pt

This structure awards teams who win the game, in whatever fashion.  You will always receive more points for a win.  Where the major difference lies in the consolation given to teams who lose in extra frames.  As stated before, a team who takes a game to overtime should be rewarded, as should a team who takes a game to a shootout.  But they should not be equal compensations.

This system would also get rid of those strange 3 point games we see now.  Sure an overtime game would be a 6pt game, but a shootout game would only be a 4 point game.  This would encourage teams to attack more and be more offensive in overtime periods, making them that much more exciting.  Shootouts would now hold more value too, as one shootout win would be equal to three shootout losses as opposed to the difference of two shootout losses we now see.

Yes this would create some rather complicated high numbers, but it would be a better indication of who the better teams truly are.  I'm sure that's worth the math.  The biggest benefit of this situation is that it stops rewarding teams for losing.  The percentage of points earned in losing efforts would decrease significantly.

As of Feb 29th NHL teams had accumalated almost 11 percent of their points from losses.  If the 5 point system was applied that number shrinks to 3.94%.  Carolina, the worst offender, had almost a quarter of their points (21.31%) from losses.  The lowest percentage in the league, Detroit at 3.45%, was the only team to be under what the league average would be in the 5 point system.

And while the standings wouldn't change dramatically, there would be subtle changes.  For example, on Feb 29th, the Maple Leafs stood 3 points behind Winnipeg.  A deficit that would require at least 2 games to make up.  While in the 5 point system, they were only 5 points back of Winnipeg, a deficit that would require only a single regulation win...well maybe the Leafs weren't a great example to use...(sorry Leaf fans, couldn't resist).

The point is, the gaps are more realistic representations of actual game play achievement in a 5 point system. 

I will revisit this again at the conclusion of the season to see if it makes that much of a difference in the playoff structure.

Canada's U18 Prospects

The CHL regular season has come to a close and a small amount of teams have seen their seasons come to an end.  There is still a huge opportunity for those undrafted prospects to showcase their ability in a high intensity competition, the U18 World Championship being held April 12-22 in Brno and Znojmo, Czech Republic.

The coaching staff has been named with Jesse Wallin of Red Deer taking the helm, flanked by Todd Gill of Kingston and Gordie Dwyer of the PEI Rocket.  Along with the scouting staff of Hockey Canada, they will be charged with putting together the roster who's job it will be to win the U18 Championship for their country.

Canada's roster will be made up of CHL players not playing in the playoffs or whose teams have been eliminated in round 1.

Here are the possibilities:


Eliminated teams

The Locks:

Red Deer Rebels (WHL):  Matt Dumba - An almost absolute lock to go in the top 10 of this year's NHL draft, Dumba was the captain of Canada's U18 Team that took home gold at the Ivan Hlinka and should be a lock to wear the C again for Canada this time around.  Especially considering his head coach in Red Deer will be running the show this time around.

Erie Otters (OHL): Adam Pelech - A surprise selection for the Ivan Hlinka roster considering Canada's wealth of 94 born defenders, Pelech has improved all year and should be a lock to return to the Red and White.

Sault Saint Marie Greyhounds (OHL): Matt Murray - A standout during the Top Prospect Showcase in Kelowna, Murray is highly regarded with Hockey Canada goaltending consultant and coach, Ron Tugnutt and will have the opportunity to atone for his disapointment in being left off the Ivan Hlinka roster.  Even if other goaltenders emerge, Murray can likely only be challenged by Calgary's Chris Driedger, Val d'Or's Tremblay or Oshawa's Altshuler.  He's a safe bet to be at least the 2nd goaltender for this squad.

Prince Albert Raiders (WHL): Mike Winther - A speedy forward who has turned heads all season, Winther's game translates well to the International style and he should be a lock to at least crack the 4th line, but could even find himself on a 2nd or 3rd line with potential PP minutes.

Prince George Cougars (WHL): Troy Bourke - A very talented offensive playmaker, Bourke has been thrown to the wolves a bit this year in the WHL but continues to drive forward.  He will be highly motivated and ready to play for his country.

The Good Shots

Sault Saint Marie Greyhounds (OHL) - Giancarlo Curcuruto - A very talented and under rated prospect in my opinion, Curcuruto was very close to making the Ivan Hlinka team in the summer and sits with an excellent shot, though not a lock, to make the team this time around.

Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) - Branden Troock - A gritty and hard working power forward, Troock fits a mould that Hockey Canada loves and he could find himself with a role playing spot when all is said and done, especially after proving his clutch ability in an MVP performance at the CHL Top Prospect Game.


Other Players with Slight Hopes

WHL
Lethbridge - Jay Merkley - Underaged playmaker, well know to those in Calgary.
Prince Albert - Josh Morrissey - Very well rounded underaged defender turning heads out west.
Prince George - Alex Forsberg - Undersized and underaged but a highly touted playmaker.
Prince George - Devon Fordyce - Goaltender with short term competition experience and success.
Red Deer - Bolton Pouliot - Not likely to take a spot, but still a goaltending consideration
Seattle - Connor Honey - Gritty ball of energy who never stops competing.
Swift Current - Coda Gordon - Big numbers on bad team, but cooled as season carried on.

OHL
Kingston - Ryan Kujawinski - Big underage centre is one of Todd Gill's go to guys already.
Peterborough - Nick Ritchie - Underage speedster is primed to be an offensive machine.
Peterborough - Slater Koekoek - Injured, highly unlikely to return, but name should be there as he would be on the team if not for being sidelined.
SS Marie - Darnell Nurse - Big hulking underaged defender, worth at least the conversation.

QMJHL
None to consider at this time


The Playoff Teams

WHL
Tri City - Connor Rankin
Everett - Nick Walters, Jari Ericsson
Preferred - Rankin would be a welcome addition to the offense.
Likelihood - Not much of a chance Tri Cities loses this one.  Walters likely a bubble player, Ericsson likely gets spoken about but won't crack the roster

Portland - Derrick Pouliot, Brendan Leipsic
Kelowna - Damon Severson, Carter Rigby
Pref: Portland's Pouliot and Leipsic would be shoeins.
Likelihood - Kelowna falls to high powered Winterhawks.  Severson stands a real shot at cracking the squad, Rigby will get serious consideration as a role player but likely doesn't make the team in the end.

Kamloops - none
Victoria - Brandon Magee, Steven Hodges, Zane Jones
Pref - The choice of 3 vs. 0 makes it easy.
Likelihood - Victoria doesn't stand much of a chance to win this series, Magee, if healthy has earned a great reputation and should make the team, Hodges and Jones would both fit nicely but likely find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble when the team is chosen.

Spokane - none
Vancouver - none

Calgary - Chris Driedger
Brandon - Ryan Pulock, Eric Roy, Tyrell Seaman
Pref - Wash
Likelihood - Driedger would be a solid number one or two goaltender but Calgary is favored to win this series.  Offensively inclined D men Pulock and underager Roy are a nice consolation to chose from, and big strong power forward Seaman adds a nice dynamic as well.  Pulock would be a no brainer to crack the D, Roy and Seaman would likely fall victim to the numbers game, but will get long looks.

Edmonton - Reinhart
Kootenay - Reinhart
Pref - Reinhart
Likelihood - Reinhart...Edmonton should steamroll the Ice and will the elder Reinhart would be a lock to make the team, the very young Sam Reinhart will get debated heavily on whether or not they will bring someone so young on board.  Depending on what other forwards are available elsewhere, Reinhart could just crack the squad.

Moose Jaw - Morgan Rielly
Regina - Morgan Klimchuk, Chandler Stephenson
Pref - Rielly
Likelihood - No Rielly even if Regina manages to upset the number 2 seed Warriors as he is still injured.  Klimchuk and Stephenson are nice to debate, but have little hope of making the final roster.

Medicine Hat - Hunter Shinkaruk
Saskatoon - Ryan Olsen, Dalton Thrower
Pref - Shinkaruk.  Who wouldn't want one of the best offensive players available for next year's NHL draft.
Likelihood - An upset is possible here, but unlikely.  Thrower is injured but word is he could be back and would be a welcome addition to this team.  Olsen has been up and down but could find himself with consideration in the bottom 3-4 forwards for the team.

OHL
London - Andreas Athanasiou
Windsor - Kerby Rychel, Chris Marchese
Pref - Wash
Likelihood - Top seed London rolls on.  Kerby Rychel has been one of the most surprising prospects of the season and it all started with his breakout performance in Canada's colors at the Ivan Hlinka.  He would be a lock to rejoin the squad.  Marchese has been inconsistent but his high energy and physical play could be a welcome addition as well.

Plymouth - Tom Wilson
Guelph - Matt Finn, Scott Kosmachuk
Pref - Guelph
Likelihood - Guelph falls to Plymouth.  Finn and Kosmachuk are virtual locks to be named to the team.  If Guelph prevails, Wilson also would be a lock.

Kitchener - Matia Marcantuoni
Owen Sound - Gemel Smith, Jarrod Maidens
Pref - Owen Sound
Likelihood - Maidens would be a lock, but since he has barely played all year, safe to assume he is out.  Smith's work ethic and small offensive upside are very difficult to match up against and he can really inspire a team with his play.  Smith would be a lock.  An injury riddled season have left a lot of questions around Marcantuoni.

Sarnia - none
Saginaw - none

Niagra - Jesse Graham
Oshawa - Scott Laughton, Daniel Altshuler
Pref - Oshawa
Likelihood - Oshawa falls to high powered Niagra, Laughton shores up a strong 2nd line for Canada, Altshuler enters the goalie debate.  It likely comes down to him, Murray and Tremblay for 2 spots.

Ottawa - Sean Monahan
Belleville - Brenden Gaunce
Pref - Slight lean to Monahan
Likelihood - Canada gets their top line center from this series.  Belleville seems poised for a potential upset, Monahan tears up tournament and garners serious hype for next year's draft.

Barrie - Aaron Ekblad
Mississauga - none
Pref - Barrie to fall
Likelihood - Barrie doesn't fall.  Ekblad would be a great addition to the backend for Canada and would seize the opportunity, but it doesn't look like it will be this year.

Brampton - none
Sudbury - Matthew Campagna
Pref - Blujus
Likelihood - Campagna's Wolves fall to the Battalion and Campagna finds himself as one of the last players to make the team, or the first not to make the team.

QMJHL
Saint John - none
Cape Breton - William Carrier
Pref - Cape Breton
Likelihood - It would be a moder day miracle if 16th seed Cape Breton took down the reigning Memorial Cup champs.  Carrier is one of only a handful of players in the Q who would really have a shot at cracking team Canada as it is.  Expect him to be there.

Shawinigan - none
Rouyn-Noranda - Dillon Fournier (injured)
Pref - Fournier
Likelihood - Even with the likelihood that they will fall to the far superior Cataractes, Fournier will have his work cut out for himself to make the Canadian squad, but stranger things have happened.
EDIT - Fournier is out with a shoulder injury and likely isn't able to recover in time to participate.

Blainville-Boisbriand - none
Gatineau - none

Victoriaville - Brandon Whitney
Baie Comeau - Felix Girard
Pref - Wash
Likelihood - Baie Comeau falls, Girard still doesn't make the team.

Quebec - none
Drummondville - Dominic Graham
Pref - Graham to improve the goalie pool
Likelihood - It won't matter, Graham, while talented, can't push one of the other names out.

Halifax - Nathan MacKinnon
Moncton - none
Pref - The young superstar in the making
Likelihood - MacKinnon could have made the WJC squad, but it's not likely he will get his shot to suit up for Canada here as the Mooseheads are poised to roll through Moncton.

Rimouski - none
Val d'Or - Anthony Mantha, Matt Murphy
Pref - Val d'Or
Likelihood - Neither Mantha or Murphy are on the radar enough as of yet to earn a spot on Canada, but watch out for both moving forward.

Chicoutimi - Charles Hudon
Acadie Bathurst - Christophe Lalancette
Pref - Hudon to run the offense
Likelihood - Lalancette gets added to the mix as one of the very few Q league players who could actually stand a chance to make the team.


If I had to predict the squad, I imagine it will look something like this:

Forwards
Monahan, Bourke, Smith
Rychel, Laughton, Kosmachuk
Carierre, Winther, Lalancette
Magee, Reinhart, Rigby
Bubble: Troock, Campagna, Hodges

Defense
Dumba, Finn
Pelech, Pulock
Curcuruto, Severson
Thrower - if healthy
Bubble - Morrissey

Goaltenders
Murray, Tremblay
Bubble - Altshuler, Graham