Friday 20 April 2012

CHL league semifinal pre-series thoughts

In what was arguably one of the most exciting playoff rounds in recent memory for all three CHL leagues (7 game 7s), the hype around the remaining teams is sky high.  Here are some thoughts on those that remain:

Starting out west - WHL

Edmonton Oil Kings vs. Moose Jaw Warriors
Both teams have deep deep rosters with high end talent.  Both teams have young stars that have been electrifying so far in the playoffs as well.  Both teams have goaltenders that have proved very reliable thus far in the playoffs.  We are likely to see the return of Morgan Rielly which could prove to be a great boost for Moose Jaw.

Key Players
Edmonton - Curtis Lazar, Michael St. Croix, Mark Pysyk
Moose Jaw - Quinton Howden, Cam Braes, Dylan McIlrath

Prospects who Could Make an Impact
Edmonton - Curtis Lazar, Griffin Reinhart
Moose Jaw - Morgan Rielly, Brayden Point

Wildcard
Edmonton - Travis Ewanyk - Very good two way player is the kind of player who steps up well in playoffs.
Moose Jaw - Eric Arnold - Unheralded Swiss import has come to life in the playoffs, did the same in Swiss league playoffs last year.  He loves playing this time of year.

Prediction: Oil Kings win in 6

Tri-City Americans vs. Portland Winterhawks
Both teams have aging core rosters (hilarious to say when talking about junior hockey) and the time to win is now.  These two teams are both capable of playing high-octane offensive styles and this series should be an offensive showcase.

Key Players
Portland - Ty Rattie, Sven Bartschi, Joe Morrow
Tri-City - Adam Hughesman, Brendan Shinnimin, Patrick Holland

Prospects who Could Make an Impact
Portland - Derrick Pouliot, Brendan Leipsic
Tri-City - Brian Williams, Connor Rankin

Wildcard
Portland - Brad Ross - Can absolutely drive other teams insane with rage with aggressive and antogonistic play but can also put up big numbers.
Tri-City - Ty Rimmer - Has been very strong in the playoffs so far and will need to be on his game to try and frustrate Winterhawk attack.

Prediction: Portland in 6

OHL

London Knights vs. Kitchener Rangers
Kitchener showed some great depth and character in knocking off the Plymouth Whalers in round 2 and are rewarded with trying to do the same to the top seeded London Knights.  London has a relentless attack and a strong backend.  Kitchener can launch attacks from anywhere on the ice.  This should be a very fun series to watch.

Key Players
London: Jarred Tinordi, Seth Griffith, Vlad Namestnikov
Kitchener: Ryan Murphy, Tobias Rieder, Michael Catenacci

Prospects who Could Make an Impact
London: Olli Maatta, Max Domi
Kitchener: Radek Faksa, Max Iafrate

Wildcard
London: Scott Harrington - Needs to showcase his two-way ability but also be strong at holding off Kitchener's big forwards and any rushes from Ryan Murphy.
Kitchener: John Gibson - Has the ability to steal games, he will need to show that a couple times in this series.

Prediction: London in 7

Ottawa 67s vs. Niagara IceDogs
The top 2 seeds in the OHL East collide in what could be a runaway win in either direction or a very tight and highly contested series.  Both teams have the potential and firepower to run up the score on each other.  Both teams have very good puck moving defenders that can turn transitional rushes up ice very quickly and both teams have high impact, reliable goal scorers.

Key Players
Ottawa - Tyler Toffoli, Shane Prince, Petr Mrazek
Niagara - Ryan Strome, Freddie Hamilton, Dougie Hamilton

Prospects who Could Make an Impact
Ottawa - Sean Monahan, Cody Ceci
Niagara - Jesse Graham, Joel Wigle

Wildcard
Ottawa - Tyler Graovac - Will need to be strong in both directions to keep pace with deep Niagara forward group.
Niagara - Tom Kuhnhackl - The German import and draft pick of the Penguins is a very good goal scorer who is really starting to find his stride, which could spell trouble for Ottawa.

Prediction: Niagara in 6


QMJHL

Saint John Sea Dogs vs. Chicoutimi Sagueneens
The defending Memorial Cup Champions are maybe even a better team than the one that won last year and have had no challenge so far in the playoffs.  That changes with Chicoutimi, who are one of the only teams to hold a winning record vs. Saint John in a year over the past two seasons.

Key Players:
Saint John - Jonathan Huberdeau, Zack Phillips, Charlie Coyle, the list goes on...
Chicoutimi - Guillaume Asselin, Christian Ouellet, Christopher Gibson

Prospects who Could Make an Impact
Saint John - Stephen MacAuley, Oliver Cooper
Chicoutimi - Charles Hudon, Jeramie Gregoire

Wildcard
Saint John - Nathan Beaulieu - The offensive blueliner could see an increased reliance on him if Chris Gibson is able to stall the Sea Dog attack.  Powerplay could be a major factor in this series and Beaulieu will need to launch those attacks.
Chicoutimi - Lukas Sedlak - He has been a tremendously reliable and consistent offensive contributor in the second half of the season and will need to raise him game even more to push Saint John.

Prediction:
Saint John in 5

Halifax Mooseheads vs. Rimouski Oceanic
After an epic comeback from being down 3 games to zip and winning a thrilling game 7 overtime against Quebec, the Mooseheads find a familiar playoff foe in the Rimouski Oceanic.  Rimouski has had a very succesful playoff past against Halifax, including a 2004 QMJHL championship victory when they were led by a Halifax kid named Sidney Crosby.  Halifax has the highly touted Cole Harbour prodigy this time and should put up a much better fight this time around.

Key Players
Halifax: Martin Frk, Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin,
Rimouski: Alexandre Mallet, Jerome Gauthier-Leduc, Alex Belzile

Prospects who Could Make an Impact
Halifax: Read Key Players again and add Zachary Fucale and Andrew Ryan
Rimouski: Alexis Loiseau, Ryan MacKinnon

Wildcard
Halifax: Cameron Critchlow - After a 4 goal game 7 performance vs. Quebec, the Moosehead captain is the steady beat that keeps Halifax's potent young attack rocking.  Crithlow is a heart and soul character player who can turn around Halifax's fortunes if they start to go the wrong way.
Rimouski: Scott Oke - He has the playoff experience, winning with Saint John last year, and could be relied on to match up against Halifax's top guns.  The bigger impact he makes on this series, the better chance Rimouski has of winning.

Prediction: Halifax in 6


It should be another very interesting round of games around the CHL.  If you live anywhere near these cities, get out and support team or take in some of the best and most competitive hockey going.  Unless you are in Halifax where 10,500 tickets have sold for games one and two and are being resold at 100$ by scalpers.  That's an 83$ mark up in some cases!  That's what a crazy comeback can do!

Best of luck to all the teams still battling it out for their Memorial Cup dreams!

Wednesday 18 April 2012

Looking forward to U18 Quarter Final Matchups

The playoff round gets set to begin for the U18 World Champs after a day off.  Here's what you can likely expect:

Finland vs. Germany

The winner of this game gets to play Sweden in the semifinals.  Germany is a bit of a surprise to have made it this far, and on paper this looks like it could be an easy win for Finland.  But Germany is anything but an easy opponent.  Germany is well coached by Jim Setters and has a versatile lineup with capable goaltending.  They have shown good discipline, work ethic and commitment to their gameplans.  Finland has some potent offensive talent and some good strong physical forecheckers.  The Finns biggest asset is their powerplay which has created relentless scoring chances for them every game except their first.  This game will likely come down to special teams.  If Germany can stay out of the box they can likely keep the score tight and compete, possibly even upset the Finns but if they give the Finns any space, the Finns are tough to stop once they get running.

Key Players
Finland: Teuvo Teravainen, Ville Pokka, Sasha Barkov
Germany: Leon Draisaitl, Marcel Kurth, Marvin Cupper

Prediction: Finland pulls out a 6-3 win but the game is closer than the score indicates. (How can you bet against a Finland vs. Sweden semifinal?)

Canada vs. Russia

The winner of this match of bitter rivals gets another bitter rival in the USA as a semifinal opponent.  Russia does not play like the stereotypical Russian entries in past years of this tournament.  They have a gritty, well rounded team that plays hard in both directions but also boasts some extremely dangerous offensive talent.  Canada has a similar team, with a bit more grit but not as much offensive firepower.  This game could come down to which team can figure out the opposition goaltending first.  Both Russia's Vasilevski and Canada's Murray have been strong so far in the event but have both also given up some goals they probably shouldn't have.  If that happens in this game, it could prove costly.  Canada will need to attempt to work down the Russian defence and get pucks to the net front.  This is where Kerby Rychel, Scott Laughton and Hunter Shinkaruk come in.  All three will need to be on and winning battles down low for Canada to optimize their chances for victory.  Russia has great speed and creativity.  If they can push Canada's defence low and get some good shots from motion they will improve their chances of winning dramatically.  This game has potential to be a hard battle or an all out run and gun shootout.

Key Players
Canada: Matt Dumba, Brendan Gaunce, Hunter Shinkaruk
Russia: Valeri Nichushkin, Bogdan Yakimov, Anto Slepyshev

Prediction: Canada gets their rematch with the US with a 4-3 win.

(Don't forget to catch this game on TSN in Canada or on fasthockey.com)

Tuesday 17 April 2012

U18 Thoughts - Day 5

Day 5 of the IIHF World U18 Champs saw some decisive victories surrounding one highly entertaining and competitive matchup that again contained those crazy Latvians!  Here are some thoughts on the fifth day of action:

CAN - CZE
- Canada came out with a strong effort that really displayed some of the depth they have on their roster and rode it to a comfortable victory.
- Brendan Gaunce who has been a terrific and unheralded player so far for Canada really got the ball rolling.  His PK play and defensive zone responsibility have been better than any other forward in the tournament so far and he proved he has the offensive touch to go with it.  He seems highly motivated and could prove to be the driving force behind any potential Canadian success.  I'm very pleased with what he has shown so far.
- Matt Dumba and Kerby Rychel continue to be consistent and determined players for Canada.  Rychel is oozing confidence and has shown tremendous focus.  Can't say enough about him.  Dumba has been a true leader and has toned down his (at times) risky play in favor of opportunistic and intelligent aggression.
- Scott Laughton has been a beast in the faceoff circle for Canada.  Very aggressive and determined in the dots.  Wins a lot of draws clean, but almost always wins draws that begin contested.  Very good small area battle in this kid.
- Felix Girard made his tournament debut to round out Canada's roster.  An energetic defensive forward, his presence will be a big boost as the competiton heats up.
- Petr Sidlik has been very strong and reliable all tournament long.  He has proven very good at calming the play down and leading the Czech breakout.  He is smooth and intelligent and while not overly flashy, his decision making has really stood out in a positive way.
- Patrik Machac made his tournament debut for the Czechs after his Brampton Battalion team was ousted from the OHL playoffs.  While he seemed a little subdued at times, Machac has blazing speed and can really push defenders wide opening up middle lanes for teammates.  He connected on a brilliant pass with Dominek Volek for what was arguablly the nicest goal of the game.

FIN - DEN
- The combo of Teuvo Teravainen and Arrturi Lehkonen was too much to handle for the Danes, who have put up good fights against top competition in all their games but just haven't shown the depth or team play ability to upset anybody.
- Teravainen looked like a man playing against boys and was able to dazzle around the puck all game long.
- Lehkonen has great hands and always seems to find holes in coverage while Teravainen has the puck.  Lehkonen has a nose for the net and is deadly with the puck in any sort of space in the offensive zone.
- Danish defender Bjorn Uldall, who has been a strong player internationally for the Danes all year long, displayed some very good two-way potential in this game and seemed to finally be settling in to a comfort zone in this tournament after some inconsistent play early on.
- Finland seems to adapt their gameplan to their opponent, something that has helped them gain success so far in the tournament, but you can't help but get the feeling that it could be playing with fire come the playoff rounds.  They do however have the talent to back it up.

RUS - SUI
- Switzerland has been a bit of a disapointment so far and the effort they needed in this game was nowhere to be seen.
- Russian Captain, Anton Slepyshev, who is a top rated prospect and is highly under the microscope in this event had a breakout game.  He had been overshadowed by Yakimov and Nichushkin in previous games but managed to steal back some of his thunder in this game.
- Daniil Zharkov continues to impress, showing great puck presence in this game.  His shot is lightning quick and if it doesn't go in, it either misses the net or creates some sort of rebound, and he doesn't miss the net often.
- Yegor Malenkikh has been a very interesting player for the Russian's, he seems to be gaining confidence with each game and has shown some good rushing ability in the past two games.
- Sandro Zangger was really the only Swiss player worth mentioning in this game.  His effort level and energy have been consistent in both directions all tournament long, and while not the flashiest or smoothest player, he is highly effective and shows some strong potential for development moving forward.  He certainly has a good head for the game.

LAT - GER
- This game was the crown jewel of the day.  A back and forth seesaw affair that had a bit of everything.
- Latvia continues to play a very entertaining and likeable style of hockey that is both bold and passionate.  Characteristics that international hockey fans know Latvians hold in abundance.
- Germany has countered with a silent, strong work ethic mixed with some dazzling speed and very good technical team play.
- Dominik Tiffels had a great game for Germany and his stretch passes were some of the first of the tournament that have managed to create consistent breakins on the aggressive and physical Latvian defenders.
- Leon Draisaitl is one of the best perimeter passes in the tournament.  He has a big powerful frame, protects the puck well and makes accurate passes with great poise and crispness.  The young German has a ton of potential, especially if he can acknowledge the minor defensive deficiencies and lack of consistent two-way effort in his game.
- Latvia's Robert Lipsbergs was possessed in this game and wowed with his determination to follow up on original shots.  His constant motion after shooting led to 2 of 3 goals on the game, while his above average shot led to the winner.
- While Lipsbergs, Bluegers and Jevpalovs have been the most dangerous offensive weapons for Latvia, their supporting cast has shown very well also.  Edgars Kulda is one player that always seems to be doing something positive for his team and while he hasn't put up big numbers he has been a catalyst for good on his team and has proven to be one of their most consistent workers.
- Latvia has made some serious noise in this tournament but Germany still has a very real shot of moving to the quarterfinals as well.  A German win against winless Switzerland combined with a Russian loss to the undefeated Swedes would cause a 3 way tie for the final spot, and the resulting tiebreakers could sink the Latvians hopes of moving on.  One thing is for sure, it will be a very interesting finish in group B.

Day 6 brings some of the most anticipated matchups of the entire tournament.  Sweden vs. Russia and USA vs. Canada headline a very important day of action.  Russia is in a must win situation unless they feel comfortable leaving their fate to the result of the Germany vs. Switzerland game which could have major implications in both the quarterfinals and relegation games.  Also on top is a very important game between the host Czech Republic and Finland.  This game has major tournament implications as well as both teams need a win to dictate their quarterfinal fate.  A Czech win combined with a Canadian loss would create a log jam for the playoffs and the tie-breaker could end up being decided by the actual scores of these games.

Also of note, the U18 Div1 will be decided today as Norway and Slovakia do battle in Piestany, the winner will gain promotion to the top group for the 2013 U18 World Champs.

What a great time of year!

Sunday 15 April 2012

U18 Thoughts - Day 4

Only 2 games on the schedule yesterday and here are my thoughts:

USA- DEN
- Jared Rutledge got his chance to keep USA's shutout streak alive and didn't disapoint his team.  Although not challenged too much he did have to make a few saves in the first that really set the tone for the rest of the game.
- The US defense was stellar once again.  Their ability to move the puck up ice off transition has been the key to the US success so far.
- Up front Matt Lane and Quentin Shore had good games.  Shore has shown some strong ability to fire the puck from the circles and picks his spots well.
- Denmark's Magnus Povlsen was again a pleasant surprise for his team.  He really gets around the ice well and proved he can skate and deny space well against a grittier North American opponent.
-   There is also quite a bit to like about Danish captain Kristoffer Lauridsen.  Strong on skates, was unintimidated by big US defenders Jones and Trouba and fought well to earn space in the net front area.
- US is quickly earning respect and I might need to revise my pre-tournament predictions as they are emerging as the favorites thus far.

SWE-LAT
- The Swedes seemed generally shocked by the speed and physicality the Latvians offered early on in this game.  They really struggled to get much offensive zone pressure early and had an equally hard time breaking the puck into the zone against a very underrated and defensively sound Latvian D group.
- As the game wore on, Swedish captain started to assert himself and was a force in all 3 zones.  He threw some good hits, unleashed a couple rocket shots and was a strong defensive presence as well.
- Top goaltending prospect, Oscar Dansk had the night off for Sweden and the game was no picnic for his backup, Magnus Hogberg.  Hogberg was forced to come up with some very tough saves in the 3rd period to keep a determined Latvian attack from equalling the game.
- Elias Lindholm, a late 94 birthdate, was also very strong for the Swedes.  And while that's easy to say, considering he was given credit on two goals in the 3rd period for the Swedes, it was his faceoff presence and consistency that really helped push his team to victory.
- Swedish 95 born Andre Burakowsky was the other member of Sweden's top line and really showcased his quickness and outside rush ability during this game.  He is a real gem and will be a highly coveted offensive player in the 2013 NHL draft.
- Teddy Bluegers had another strong showing for the Latvians.  He was creating offensive chances all game long in the playmaker role but also had a strong rush in the 2nd period but was robbed after a very nice move to backhand on partial breakaway.
- Rihards Bukarts was also in fine form for most of the game and can prove extremely elusive with the puck on the rush.  He is very good at making last second cuts to avoid checks and continune on with the puck.
- Defender Rinalds Rosinskis was again an impressive physical force for the Latvians.  A defence first player, he can really take away space well and was difficult to get around all night for even the most elusive Swedish forwards.  He is really carving out a name for himself so far at this event.
- Latvian goaltender Ivans Punnenvovs was spectacular.  This was first viewing of the young Latvian, and what I say was an impressive display of competitiveness and skill.  He answered the call almost every single shot and had to make some ridiculous saves with his glove.  If he can show effort like this consistently, we just might have something to talk about as far as pro potential is concerned.


Random Notes:
- The scouts section was packed for the Sweden vs. Latvia game and included a few GMs as well.  Steve Tambellini was in attendance, as was Steve Yzerman.  Yzerman, always the class act, posed for a ton of photos with Czech fans on the concourse after the game.  I remember when I was on the organizing committee in Halifax for the World Championships and Yzerman and Shane Doan would stop to sign every shirt, pose in every picture.  It was tough when it was your job to move them around undetected and on time, but I always had a ton of respect for them for making that time.

U18 Thoughts - Day 3

Day 3 of the U18 Champs had me running around the country to catch the games I wanted to see, got to enjoy the backroads of southern Czech Republic, experienced a 5 man accordion band in the lobby of my hotel when I got back and saw some old friends.

As far as the games went here are my thoughts from a busy day 3:

USA- CZE
- Another shutout for Collin Olson, people don't understand how difficult it is for a North American to come to Europe for a short term competiton.  The adjustments and fatigue really effect focus, which most positions can get away with.  Goaltenders not so much.
- The US kept the Czechs to 17 shots on goal with most of those coming in the 3rd period with the game firmly in their control.
- The stable of US defenders led by Jones and Trouba is exceptional, they play a smart team game and the transitional attack option they provide is deadly.
- Daniel O'Reagan has been a nice addition to the team and has seen a lot of crucial offensive minutes up front, including PP minutes.  His ability to play the perimeter has made life easy for Nicholas Kerdiles who is getting more chances from the middle ice to shoot.
- Young Czech forward Jakub Vrana had a great game agasint Denmark but was not able to match his performance agains the US and really struggled to win space against the big, mobile US defenders.
- It was a tough showing for most of the Czech players as not many were able to get much going.

RUS - GER
- Germany pulled off arguably their biggest upset win at this tournament in recent memory.  They were a surprising team last year and look to repeat that situation again this year.
- Germany is well coached, play a very disciplined team style and pick their spots.
- 95 born Frederik Tiffels was the catalyst for Germany in this game.  His lightning quick speed and full ice work ethic was contagious after he put it together for Germany's first goal of the game.
- The combination of Marcel Kurth and 95 born Leon Draisaitl was potent on the powerplay.  Draisaitl is a very good playmaker in the offensive end and showed off some tremendous vision, with Kurth battles hard for space and can make things happen around the net.
- German goaltender Marvin Cupper was beyond stellar keeping Russia frustrated in the 3rd period and was the main reason Germany was able to hold on for the win.
- Russia has great young talent up front.  Late 94 birthdate Bogdan Yakimov is a very appealing offensive player.  He has great size, moves well and his technical ability with the puck is impressive.
- Valeri Nichushkin, who plays every shift with Yakimov in all situations, is explosive and has seemingly endless talent.  Great with the puck, he showed outstanding poise and patience on Russia's first goal and sprinkled in strong displays of defensive and physical play throughout the game for a very complete performance.
- Anton Slepyshev is one of Russia's top prospects for this year's draft but has been seriously overshadowed by his younger linemates.
- Andrei Vasilevski, who has a shot to be the first goaltender drafted this year, was unimpressive.  He didn't have a bad game, but wasn't able to come up with the saves he really needed to.  He continues to show holes on his blocker side.  He wasn't bad, by any stretch, but he needs to be better to justify his hype.

SWE-SUI
- Sweden continued their dominance of this event so far with a convincing drubbing of Switzerland.
- The game was never really in doubt for Sweden and their big guns had little trouble creating chances on the Swiss.
- Again, leading the way it was the line of Sebastien Collberg, Alexander Wennberg and Gustav Possler, with Possler taking his turn to score a hat trick in this game.  The 3 are at the top of the tournament scoring chart so far.
- Hampus Lindholm had a strong showing and displayed some of the offensive flare that has him flying up the draft board for most teams.
- Swedish netminder Oscar Dansk, who is my personal vote for top goaltending prospect this year had a mediocre showing.  He was never forced to do too much and went long stretches without much action.
- The Swiss did not have much working for them in this game.  They relied heavily on their top line of Lukas Balmelli, Lukas Sieber and Dario Simion but the trio was not able to muster up many chances.  Sieber's frustration was evident in the 3rd period and he resorted to using his stick a little freely on the defensive side of the puck.

CAN-FIN
- The game started out with a fast pace and some good physical play.  Both teams had some good chances to score but both Korpisalo and Murray proved up for the task
- Canada got on the board with under a second to play in the 1st period as Matt Dumba hammered a one timer off the faceoff to open the scoring.
- Canada had Ryan Pulock and Hunter Shinkaruk dressed and playing even though they only arrived in Breclav slightly over an hour before the game.  Pulock showed the fatigue a bit, struggling to control the puck early and was relegated to mostly PP duty for the game with the odd shift here or there.  Shinkaruk on the other hand didn't seem to miss a beat and was more and more prevelant as the game went on.
- Scott Kosmachuk's work ethic really stood out.  He flies around the ice and always seems to be in the action.
- Darnell Nurse had a rough game, getting called on some tough situations where he was perhaps a bit too overzealous physically.
- Kerby Rychel was arguably Canada's best player in this game, showing great work ethic and desire to get the puck at the net.
- Teuvo Teravainen and Juuso Ikonen were also making their tournament debuts as both just arrived in the Czech Republic.  Teravainen was hands down the best player on the ice for either team and showcased his ability to do a bit of everything.  His stock will continue to climb if he can keep up the efforts like this one.
- Ristolainen and Pokka had very average showings but Niklas Tikkinen was exceptional.  He is a very smooth moving defender with great deceptive skills and tremendous puck distribution ability.
- Arrturi Lehkonen is a 95 born Finnish forward wearing an A.  He played on the top line with Teravainen and Ikonen and had a very strong showing.  He is dynamite around the net and shows great ability to pick up pucks in scrambles and rebounds.  His hands and goal scoring ability are high end.
- Canada's Matt Murray actually kept the score from being a lot worse than it was.  Finland moved the puck extremely well on the PP and managed to find shooting lanes from side to side.  Murray was excellent at getting across and denying chance after chance.  As strong as he was, I felt he was making saves he shouldn't have but didn't make a couple he should have.  All in all though an impressive performance that should help his draft stock.


Today there are two games on tap: Denmark vs. USA in Brno and Latvia vs. Sweden in Znojmo.  Both games are set to start at the same time, so I will likely take in the fun loving Latvians vs. the uber talented Swedes, which could prove to be a more competitive game than it appears on paper.

Saturday 14 April 2012

U18 Thoughts - Day 2

Day 2 wrapped up with some surprisingly entertaining games.

CZE vs. DEN
- After a couple down years, the Czechs have a very well rounded squad with a lot of underrated and talented players.
- Jakub Vrana was the best player on the ice all game long, significant because he's the only 96 born in the tournament.
- The Czechs were very good at creating scrambles and capitalizing on the bounces around the net.
- Eusthasious Soumelidis is very good at timing his net front attacks and has strong hand eye coordination.
- The Danish offense has some weapons but their top gun Oliver Bjorkstrand was far too selfish in this game.  Sure he scored 2 goals, but I didn't count a single pass made or even attempted after the first period.  Troubling trend if it continues.
- Soren Martensen and Magnus Povlsen both displayed tremendous skill and ability for the Danes during the game and while both aren't the biggest players they were quite effective in this game and deserve further attention.
- The Czechs need better performance from their goaltending but they have the capability to run with the best of this event.

SUI vs. LAT
- This was one of the best games I have ever watched at this tournament...honestly.
- The pace from the start of the game was intense and physical with both teams dishing out a ton of punishment and playing at a speed for a long duration.  The flow slowed a bit once the refs got involved but picked up again in the 3rd.
- The Latvian group is a fun loving, hard hitting, run and gun style team that is very entertaining to watch.
- Latvia's Teddy Bluegers really showed why his name is being bounced around the mid rounds of NHL draft talk and was a prominent player in this game even though he failed to register a point.
- Young Edgars Bukarts is maybe the fastest player in the entire tournament.  Great quickness in hands and feet.
- The Latvian defense must have thrown 40 hits on their own, including some huge open ice crunches by Rinalds Rosinskis and Edmunds Augstkalns.
- Goaltender Elvis Merzlinkins was wired all game long and made some incredible desperation saves, earning him player of the game for Latvia.
- Karlis Ozolins blocked a shot off his chest in the 3rd and was being attended to by paramedics on the bench.  They even called for the paddles at one point, but they were not used and he was conscious and seems to be recoring fine.  Something to keep an eye on as I beleive he went to hospital after the game.
- Swittzerland is really missing that playmaking star they've had in years past but boast some great young power forwards in Lukas Balmelli, Dario Simion and Lukas Sieber.  Balmelli was particularly impressive in this game and just missed two shots late in the game, by the slimmest of margins.
- 95 born Phil Baltisberger plays like he is 5 years older than he is.  Strong, physical and intelligent.
- Julian Schmutz was one of the best offensive players for the Swiss but almost left the game early after getting hammered at centre ice and coming off favoring his right shoulder.  He missed a couple shifts but then scored on his first back and had a fairly good showing after, except for giving up the puck as the last man back on Latvia's second goal.
- Tough loss for the Swiss who will likely have to battle it out with Germany and Denmark in relegation unless they can upset one of the big dogs.
- A huge win for Latvia, which has without a doubt iced it's most competitive U18 team ever, an amazing feat considering their best player in the age group isn't participating.  They are a fun team to watch, on and off the ice.  When the girls who present the Tissot watches came on the ice they all raised their sticks and slapped them down to salute them and then erupted in laughter.  Great to see kids having fun at a hockey tournament!

Day 3 will see 4 games on tap, I plan on taking the Germany-Russia game in Znojmo and then moving over to see Canada and Finland play in Breclav in the evening.  Other games see the Czechs battle the US in Breclav and the Swedes and Swiss locking up in Znojmo in the evening.  Games are moved from Brno to Breclav today as Brno's senior team is still in the Czech league playoffs.

Friday 13 April 2012

U18 Thoughts - Day 1

After a day long hike, I've finally arrived in Brno, Czech Republic for the Under 18 World Championship tournament.

Day 1 saw some fairly predictable results but none the less here are some thoughts:

USA vs. FIN
- Seth Jones is wearing the C for the US and was easily the best player on the ice in the first game.  He is a favorite to go #1 overall in 2013 and with good reason.  I honestly believe he would go over Yakupov if he were available this year.  Best U18 defenseman I think I have ever watched.
- Nicholas Kerdiles has taken a bit of heat for the fact that his offensive numbers don't seem to justify his top prospect status.  If last night was any indication Kerdiles is looking to shoot the lights out here in the Czech Republic.  Really liked what I saw, especially his aggressive box attacks from the half wall on the PP.
- Finnish defender Rasmus Ristolainen is about as likeable of a prospect as you could ask for.  There doesn't seem to be anything he can't do insanely well.  I would be scared to play against him.
- The Finns really need Teravainen, there net presence was not strong and they need a player who can create space to the outside so others can penetrate.
- The Finns overused Ville Pokka, who did not show well in the first game of the tournament and underused Ristolainen.
- The Us defense is scary good and Olson is a very underrated goaltender who does not give up rebounds very often.

CAN - DEN
- Oliver Bjorkstrand is the only Danish player who seemed to be able to consistently play against the Canadians
- Matt Dumba is a machine
- Kerby Rychel always seems to improve on each shift, it's amazing

RUS - LAT
- Osnovin and Zharkov have shown instant chemistry and could be the dynamic duo for the Russian offense all tourney long
- Vasilevski looked bored
- Born on the last day of the year 1995, Latvia's Rihards Bukarts has some serious potential

SWE - GER
- Surprised not to see Cupper in nets for Germany
- With all the big guns in Sweden's lineup it was Alexander Wennberg who stole the show, scoring a hat trick and really capitalizing on the space that his linemate Sebasiten Collberg created for him
- Filip Forsberg scored the 8th goal for Sweden but was a two way force all game long and was dominant at times.
- Calle Andersson outshined Ludvig Bystrom, his puck movement skills and quick reactions are tremendous.  I picked him to be one of the biggest movers after this tournament as far as draft stock is concerned and if he keeps this up, even I may be surprised with just how far he climbs.

Games are moved from Brno today, so I will be taking in the CZE - DEN and SUI - LAT games in Znojmo.  Another adventure on the seemingly ruleless Czech highways...

Wednesday 11 April 2012

NHL Playoff Predictions

We're about an hour from puck drop for the first games of round 1 and I can't contain my excitement much longer, so I figured I'd unleash some predicitions for the first round.

East

New York over Ottawa in 6 games - The Sens won the season series 3-1 and are not an easy opponent by any means, but Henrik Lundqvist is too much and seems focused and poised to carry the Rangers deep.  Erik Karlsson keeps scoring, Spezza will struggle a bit, Gaborik launches a huge assault but Ryan Callahan does it all for the Rangers en route to a series win.

Boston over Washington in 7 games - Washington seems to have been written off by many, but I remember watching Braden Holtby in junior, he is a future star goaltender and he has a prime opportunity with a strong supporting cast, but the Big Bad B's style will eventually prevail.  Caps make it a series though.  Ovechkin steals some hype but the bottom 6 are the ones that pace the Caps to a couple victories but Krejci and Seguin are one of the best duos around and outduel the Caps dynamic combinations.

New Jersey over Florida in 6 games - I think we will all be surprised by the Florida fan support and that could go a long way in carrying the Panthers to a couple wins.  Florida's team play style is also one that is proven effective.  New Jersey has a lot of interesting characters but also the offensive muscle to push aside the surprising push the Panthers should give.  Zach Parise takes over and doesn't look back, Adam Larsson shows off some offense, Stephen Weiss finally gets some of the credit he's due.

Pittsburgh over Philadelphia in 5 games - This could be my heart speaking a bit, as Mario Lemieux was the reason I got into hockey at all but the other part of this prediction is how far out of their way Philadelphia went to try and get under the Penguins skin.  They don't have the intimidating brutes to scare the Penguins skill and the words directed at their players and coaches will only serve as white board material.  We all want this series to go 7 as the entertainment value could be off the charts but I think Philly has already shot themselves in the foot.  Staal makes a huge difference, Fleury outduels Bryzgalov and the Pens actually "out-tough" the Flyers.  Hartnell still goes off and Sean Couturier makes a bigger name for himself.

West

Vancouver over Los Angeles in 6 - LA has the goaltending and defensive strategy to try and shut down the higly skilled Canuck attack but as capable as they are at beating a team like Vancouver, try will be about as much as they can muster.  LA has Mike Richards, and come playoff time, Richards is an absolute beast, he could completely neutralize the Sedin factor and maybe even eclipse.  I think Luongo comes to play and regains a bit of his old dominant form while Quick struggles to keep the pace he set for himself in the regular season.

St. Louis over San Jose in 7 - This series has the potential to be the best of the first round.  San Jose even has the potential to win but I think the Blues disciplined team style will prevail.  Many expect St. Louis to keep the scoring down, this series they may not be able to control that and we could see some surprisingly offensive style games.  I think David Backes and Ryane Clowe have the potential to pace this series while David Perron, Kevin Shattenkirk, Joe Pavelski and Logan Couture could be poised to run wild offensively.

Chicago over Phoenix in 6 - Mike Smith finished the year hot, but Chicago has the guns to wear him down.  Phoenix has underrated talent and could surprise but the safe bet here is a Blackhawk victory, especially with the likelihood of captain Jonathan Toews returning.  Not enough credit is given to the secondary scoring of the Hawks either, I expect Shaw, Kruger and Nick Leddy to make a difference in round 1.

Nashville over Detroit in 6 - A difficult call, especially considering I loaded up on Red Wings in the mid rounds of my playoff pool but Nashville has tremendous depth and can play a very frustrating calculated physical style that could beat up the aging Wings enough to get on.  The Wings do hold the wildcard in Pavel Datsyuk and if he gets going, my prediciton could be done, but my playoff pool could look very very good.

Tuesday 10 April 2012

Draft Lottery Mock Draft

The Oilers have won the draft lottery and will pick 1st overall for the 3rd straight year.  You have to feel for Columbus who desperately needed this pick.  While it might not be the deepest or most talent-laden draft in recent years, there is still some high end skill available and some hidden gems.  Here is a look at how I see the first 14 picks going...right now....

1. Edmonton - Nail Yakupov - The rich get richer.  Oilers have the option to trade this for the stud defender they require (Shea Weber perhaps?) but the likelihood is they hang on and add an equally as talented goal scoring winger as Taylor Hall to the mix.  The Oilers are like the Penguins of wingers.
2. Columbus - Filip Forsberg - Forsberg is the safest pick at this point for the Blue Jackets, along with Ryan Murray.  Either of those two picks makes sense and helps Columbus establish a new identity...again....Intersting though as Grigorenko could be a possibility for them and would be that style of centre they have sought for Rick Nash....if they don't move him.
3. Montreal - Mikhail Grigorenko - An easy transition for the Quebec Remparts star, he has a style similar to Joe Thornton and can amplify the skill sets of those around him.
4. New York Islanders - Ryan Murray - Loaded with good young forwards, Murray would be a steal for the Islanders here, they will be watching the Columbus pick intently and if Murray falls he fits perfectly for the Isles.
5. Toronto - Matt Dumba - The Leafs have the chance to do it right, Dumba has future captain written all over him, he is loved everywhere he plays and his style is the kind of style that fans love.  This would be the start of the that rebuild we've heard of for so long, done the right way.  Galchenyuk is another potential pick at this point, but as talented as he is, would just be more of the same for the Leafs.
6. Anaheim - Morgan Rielly - Smart pick at this point, a year or two away but as intelligent as they come from the backend.
7. Minnesota - Jacob Trouba - High end defender gives them some good stability to compliment one of the best stables of forward prospects in the NHL.
8. Carolina -  Radek Faksa - They have good young D, Faksa is a very good offensive player that could flourish with some of the speed they have in their organization.
9.  Winnipeg - Alex Galchenyuk - This could be a stretch to see him fall to this spot.  Personally, I'm not as high on him as most.  The Leafs could jump on him, so could Carolina, but I'm slotting him in here for now as he definintely won't fall past Winnipeg.  Galchenyuk is a bit polarizing at times and his injury status is something that has hurt his stock a bit, but he is one of only a handful of players who truly have elite offensive pro-potential.  That being said, he's the riskiest of that small group.
10. Tampa Bay - Griffin Reinhart - Tampa's defensive depth is actually quite strong, players like Barberio and Gudas are very promising prospects in the not too distant future, but passing on Reinhart here just isn't something they should do.
11. Washington - Brendan Gaunce - Gaunce is what Washington is missing, he is a very competitive player with excellent two-way potential and good grit.  He has the energy and fire to fuel a change in the US capital.
12. Buffalo - Cody Ceci - They keep finding good value in the mid 1st round, Ceci is just that and one of the most underrated players in the draft.
13. Dallas - Sebastien Collberg - Speedy outside presence that can score a nice fit for Stars.  Teravainen another potential pick at this point as is Peterborough defender Slater Koekoek. 
14. Calgary - Zemgus Girgensons - Has the offensive skill the Flames need and the grit and physicality that fans in souther Alberta have grown to expect from their team.

Sunday 8 April 2012

U18 Predictions

The Under-18 World Championship kicks off Thursday, April 12th but teams begin their exhibition schedules this weekend.  Here is a look ahead, some players to watch and some "bold" predictions on how the event could unfold:

Canada – Always an interesting blend of talent from teams no longer participating in the CHL playoffs, Canada is hit or miss at this event.  The team should be deep and hard working with strong mobile defense and quality competitive goaltenders.  Canada has assembled a strong roster that should be able to compete with all teams during the tournament and while lacking a lot of star power up front the group they have should build strong chemistry and rely on a score by committee strategy that could take them very far.

Prediction – Gold

Prospect to Watch: Matt Dumba – A potential top 5 pick in this year’s NHL draft, Dumba captained the Canadian U18 team to victory at this past summer’s Ivan Hlinka Memorial and will look for a repeat performance.  A very dynamic and explosive defender, Dumba can dominate the ice with his physical play but is also a very exciting offensive player as well.  Watch for Canada to rely on his massive one timers from the point on the PP.

Keep an eye on: Sam Reinhart – Reinhart is the youngest of the 3 sons of former NHLer Paul Reinhart.   Reinhart was one of the youngest players in Canadian Major Junior hockey this season but still managed to score at a near point per game pace and should take home the WHL rookie of the year award.  He is not eligible for the NHL draft until 2014 and is already projected at being a top pick.



Czech Republic – Their marquee talent, Radek Faksa remains entrenched in the CHL playoffs with Kitchener and is likely not going to be available for this tournament (barring a quick exit and recovery from a concussion sustained in round 1).  The Czechs have some skill up front and some very good puck moving defenders.  In goal, Marek Langhamer is capable of stealing some wins.  Depth is what holds the Czechs back right now, but expect them to matchup surprisingly well with just about everyone.

Prediction – 6th

Player to Watch: Petr Sidlik – A slick and intelligent defender, Sidlik has great instincts and while not overly blessed in the size department he is very good at breaking up plays and starting his own.  Sidlik should anchor a decent defensive group for the Czechs that also includes promising 95 born defender Jan Kostalek.  Sidlik should devour ice time for the Czechs and will be a major reason for any success they achieve during this event.

Keep an eye on: Martin Prochazka – He has great size, protects the puck well and can be near impossible to intimidate physically.  Prochazka isn’t always the most consistent player but when he’s on he is a very appealing power forward.  A strong performance at this event would help him showcase his very good pro-potential.



Denmark – A consistently improving program, this tournament is another great step in the right direction for Danish hockey.  They continue to produce well rounded rosters with more and more top level talent.  Denmark is doing a lot right with their hockey program but will continue to require patience as they aren’t quite ready to solidify their top group status at this level.  Expect them to go to the wire with a competitive Latvian team for relegation.

Prediction – 10th - relegation

Player to Watch: Oliver Bjorkstrand - A 1995 birthdate, Bjorkstrand has been a mainstay with the U20 team this year and has produced goals at that level as well as in Denmark’s top men’s league.  He will be heavily relied on to produce offensive chances for the Danes if they have any hope of being competitive and avoiding relegation.  Speedy and dynamic, he has NHL draft potential for next season and continues to show strong development.

Keep an eye on: Mads Eller and Bjorn Udall – Udall is a very underrated and unheralded blueliner.  He has good size, moves well and can add some offensive kick from the backend.  He should see heavy minutes for the Danes and be relied on in all situations.  He will, however, need to put on a serious show to solidify any thought of him being an NHL draft pick at this point.  That being said, he is talented and developing very well making him worth a long hard look.  Eller is a 95 born player, and is the younger brother of Montreal forward Lars.



Finland – Finland is in an interesting predicament.  They are loaded with young talent and could put together a very competitive team.  The problem is some of their young stars are playing for teams that remain in league playoff battles.  Olli Maatta (London Knights) and Teuvo Teravainen (Jokerit) both look set for long playoff runs with their club teams, meaning they will not be made available for the tournament.  Finland remains a country with tremendous depth of talent though and should still provide a stern challenge for the medals.

Prediction – 5th

Player to Watch: Rasmus Ristolainen – An October 1994 birthdate, Ristolainen isn’t eligible to be drafted until next year, but would garner a lot of consideration if he were eligible this year.  He’s a very intelligent and physical defender who plays the game with the maturity of a man several grizzled years his elder.  He has good offensive upside as well and along with Ville Pokka should run the backend for the Finns.

Keep an eye on: Sasha Barkov – Another tremendously talented Finn, Barkov became the youngest player to score a goal at the World Junior Championships in December.  Not eligible until 2013, Barkov is a top 10 talent at this point and could even be considered as a top pick candidate.  Already playing against men, Barkov is a dynamic and powerful and should be one of the focal points of the Finnish attack, especially if Teravainen isn’t made available to join.



Germany – The German program continues to grow and while still not able to get over the hump of the elite teams, the IIHF’s new relegation scenarios should prove a major benefit to Germany who suffered years of up and down promotions and relegations.  This year’s crop should be competitive, well coached and versatile but should also give glimpses into the bright future of German ice hockey.  The 1995 crop of German players has shown a lot of promise for a program that will start to reap the benefits of consistency moving forward.

Prediction – 8th

Player to Watch: Marvin Cupper – Cupper was magnificent for Germany last year during this event and was the major reason Germany was able to compete with the top teams while hosting this event last year.  A bit undersized, Cupper is deceptively athletic and quick.  His technique is very strong and he plays a very aggressive and challenging style.  Felix Potvin comes to mind when watching the young German netminder.  He is an underrated netminder who will need some more grooming but his development path has proved very strong.

Keep an eye on: Leon Draisaitl – A late 95 born power forward in the making, Draisaitl is one of the most exciting German prospects in years.  He’s a good skater who plays a high tempo style game and can bring a bit of an edge at times as well.  He has excellent scoring potential and if he can continue to show good work ethic in his development he could prove to be a serious top prospect in 2014.



Latvia – Latvia suffers greatly from not having Zemgus Girgensons available for this tournament as he remains committed to his USHL club as their season continues.  There is still reason for optimism for the Latvian’s though as three of their U20 top scorers are eligible to play in this tournament as well.  Teddy Blueger, Nikita Jevpalovs and Robert Lipsbergs should make a up a more than capable top line for the Latvian’s, but will have to be on overdrive to push the Latvian’s out of the bottom group.  Overall their program seems to be on the up, but it’s still not enough.  Expect them to battle it out with Denmark for relegation.

Prediction – 9th

Player to Watch: Teddy Blueger – Teddy as he’s known when he suits up for Shattuck St. Mary’s, or Teodors his true Latvian name, is an intelligent and opportunistic two-way forward.  He prefers to be an offensive contributor and should be relied on in that role during this tournament but his draft appeal lies on his ability to play against top players from other countries and not only score but keep them in check as well.  Projected as a later pick for the draft, this is a big tournament for Blueger and he needs to perform well (not just number-wise) to justify the hype around him.  Blueger is no stranger to some of the competition having played at Shattuck with players like Nathan MacKinnon and Oscar Dansk.

Keep an eye on: Rihards Bukarts – This kid isn’t eligible to be drafted until 2014 (December 31, 1995 birth date) but already has shown a nice blend of size, skill and work ethic worthy of note.  As one of the youngest players in the tournament, Bukarts will likely find himself in a secondary offensive role which should allow him to find some success and showcase his abilities.



Russia – No Yakupov, no Grigorenko....no problem, Russia has a wealth of young talent that can electrify, impress and compete.  Surely they will miss their top stars (Grigorenko still in CHL playoffs, Yakupov a late 93 who is too old this year) but they have plenty of offensive depth and young stars that have shown well internationally.  Chances get a serious boost if Quebec has a quick exit from CHL playoffs in round 2, but that seems unlikely.

Prediction – 4th

Player to Watch: Andrei Vasilevski – The highly touted Russian netminder is about as much of a veteran of this tournament as one could possibly be.  Entering his 3rd U18 championship as Russia’s starter, Vasilevski is still riding the high his WJC performance afforded him.  A big and confident goaltender, Vasilevski needs to assert himself one more time as he battles with Oscar Dansk and Malcom Subban as the potential top goaltending prospect for this year’s draft.

Keep an eye on: Valeriy Nichuschkin and Bogdan Yakimov – Russia continues to produce superior offensive talents and both Nichuschkin and Yakimov fit that mould.  Both have been excellent contributor’s with Russia’s U18 program all year long, and while neither is eligible for the NHL draft until 2013, they should be the muscle in Russia’s offensive punch, filling the void of the aforementioned stars who can’t participate.



Sweden – On paper, Sweden looks stacked.  They have high end talent and reliable depth at every position.  They boast a plethora of potential top round NHL draft picks over the next couple of drafts and should prove to be a formidable opponent for all who stand in their way.  If anything their one downfall will be how they react to playing high energy, physical and gritty opponents like Canada and the US.  If Sweden can keep opponents from dictating the pace, tempo and style of games they play, they could potentially walk through this tournament.

Prediction – Silver

Player to Watch: Oscar Dansk – Sweden has a very deep roster, riddled with talent and potential high end picks, but the success of their team will fall on the shoulders of Dansk.  Dansk is, in my opinion, the best and most underrated goaltending prospect available for this year’s draft but not everyone is on board with that idea.  If Dansk can showcase his abilities and potential and lead this very capable Swedish team to a top 2 finish, you can bet his stock will start to ease into the realm that it truly belongs.   Dansk has good size, great focus and excellent athleticism.

Keep an eye on: Calle Andersson – Forsberg, Bystrom and Collberg are all likely first or at least early second round picks this year, but Andersson is truly interesting.  He’s not far off the abilities of Bystrom and could push his way up the draft charts with a strong performance during this tournament.



Switzerland – In recent years the Swiss have boasted rosters sprinkled with supreme talents such as Nino Niederreiter and Sven Baertschi.  This year’s squad doesn’t necessarily have that benefit, however it may be a roster with more depth than years past.  Switzerland will likely be the most mysterious team in this tournament and their final standing in this event could come down to how the bounces fall.

Prediction – 7th

Player to Watch: Christoph Bertschy – Bertschy saw major minutes in crucial situations for the Swiss U20 team at the WJC and there is no reason that he won’t be in a similar situation in this event.  He is an offensive presence that tends to sway more towards finisher than playmaker but he does have some playmaking talent as well.  The name of Bertschy’s game is creation, as very few players find themselves with as many scoring chances as he does.  Switzerland’s result in this tournament could be a direct result of how Bertschy executes in those situations he creates.

Keep an eye on: Phil Baltisberger – Another late 95 with tons of potential, Baltisberger was a member of Switzerland’s WJC team this past December/January and while he did not see a ton of ice time, his appeal was obvious with minimal evaluation required.  A big mobile and strong defender, Baltisberger has a great head for the game, can fire the puck but is most valuable because of his quick and reliable thinking in all situations.



USA – The US has dominated this event over the past decade and always seems to be the favorite coming in, however this year that’s not the case.  The US will once again ice a very competitive and talented team but on paper they fail to match up to years past and with the other top nations at this event.  The US will find most of their success starts with their very deep stable of defenders.  Trouba, Jones and Skjei will log huge minutes and will have to be on top of their games to push this team back towards glory.  All that being said, expect surprise performances from their forward group and a tight battle in the top 5 teams for the US.

Prediction – Bronze

Player to Watch: Jacob Trouba - Considered one of the top defensive prospects for this year’s NHL draft, the competition is tight to see who will be the first defender chosen.  Trouba is well in that mix.  A strong mix of size, grit and skill, Trouba leads a strong American defensive unit that will be relied on heavily if the US is going to challenge for top spot in this event and has an excellent opportunity here to solidify himself as the most valuable draft eligible defender heading into the draft.

Keep an eye on: Seth Jones - Jones is another prospect to keep an eye on, he will also anchor the US blueline and is a potential 1st overall candidate for next year.  He has tremendous size and proves to be tremendously athletic (as would be expected from the son of a former NBA star).  He plays a very calculated game and can be dominant in all three zones on the ice.  He has the potential to win the top defenseman award at this event (on paper he will likely be up against Trouba and Dumba).

Tuesday 3 April 2012

Revisiting different point systems for NHL standings - pre playoff edition

The point system in place now for the NHL is not ideal and doesn't optimally indicate who the best teams are.

Since my original blog on the idea of a 5 point system I have had a ton of feedback, and I've made alterations but also included some of the other options I've discussed with people.

A 3 points system seems easiest (but not necessarily best), each game would have a 3 point value on it.  A regulation win is 3 points, a regulation loss 0.  An OT or shootout win would be worth 2 points, while a loss in an extra frame only worth 1.  Clean, simple, easy to compute, but OT and SO being worth the same still irks me a bit.  The earlier a game ends indicates which team was better on a given night, and how much better.  Winning in a game should be worth more than winning in a skills display.

Hence the 5 point system.  I like the idea of all games being equal in points given out, so I have made an ammendment which actually makes more logical sense.  The idea of the 5 point system would be this:
Regulation win - 5pts
Overtime win - 4 pts
Shootout win - 3 pts
Shootout loss - 2 pts
Overtime loss - 1 pt
Regulation loss - 0 pts

This system would reward the teams for winning earlier as it takes more skill to win a game in regulation then in an extra period or shootout.  On the same side, teams should be rewarded for how long they can hang in with the winning team.  It is much harder and the teams are obviously more equal on that particular day the more frames are needed to decide a winner.  This system would also put a huge benefit to teams who go for it in overtime as opposed to playing for a shootout.  Think two division rivals in overtime, you can go for a shootout win and gain 1 extra point over your rival, or go for it in OT and gain 3 extra points.

The biggest knock on the 5 point system is how hard it would be and how much math would be required to just calculate the totals for the average fan sitting around having a beer and knocking back another slice of pizza with their friends.  Records would likely have to be displayed in order of points: Regulation Wins - Overtime Wins - Shootout Wins - Shootout Losses - Overtime Losses - Regulation Losses.  For example the Rangers record now would read 38-8-4-5-2-22.  Which seems quite complicated, especially since now we normally display recirds as 50-22-7.  That is a tough sell.

Where the 5 point system picks up steam, is in the amount of points that teams get for losing games.  It is much lower.  In the current system, Florida has 18.68% of their total points from losses.  Carolina and Montreal are over 20%.   In the current system Florida is up by 3 points on Washington.  That will require wins in Washington's final 2 games to pass the Panthers.  However, in a 5 point system they still only trail by 3 points.  Something that is made up in a single winning game.  Washington has actually won 3 more games than Florida this year, so that 18.68% points from losses could in fact get the Panthers into the playoffs over a team that has performed better.

Not trying to take anything away form the Panthers, who could still end up the better team in all 3 point systems but the standings should be a lot closer than they actually are.  Buffalo who is also right behind those two teams would actually stand to get hurt the most by another system.  Right now they are 2 points those very same Capitals, but with a higher percentage of their point total coming from losses, they would end up 4 points back in a 3 point system and 9 back in a 5 point system.  This has massive implications, because the Sabres have a game in hand on the Capitals.  A single win and they are notted up with the Caps as opposed to having to win at least 1 game plus in the other systems.

In the West, it's even more prevelent, and again, a playoff spot could be determined because of it.  Currently San Jose sits 8th, a single point ahead of 9th place Dallas.  In a 3 point system, they would sit tied, both with 120pts.  In a 5 point system, Dallas would actually be 4 points up on San Jose.  The reason for this is again the amount of points acquired by San Jose in losses as compared to Dallas.  Dallas has the 3rd lowest percentage of points gained from losses in the entire NHL, at 5.62%.  Only Detroit (5.05%) and Boston (4.08%) have lower scores.  San Jose on the other hand, hovers just above the league average (11.04%) at 11.11%..  That translates to 5 points for Dallas, and 10 for San Jose in the current system.

Also in the West, St. Louis would be the number one seed by almost 2 wins in every system except the current one, where they are actually 1 point behind 1st place Vancouver.  Might not seem like a big deal now, but what if the Blues have to put up with the Green Men in game 7 of the conference finals?

All in all it might seem like a lot of fuss to make for some very small changes in the standings, but the fact is there is a ton riding on those subtlties and the current system fails to reward the absolute best performing teams throughout the season.

Monday 2 April 2012

End of Round 1 Team Canada U18 Depth Chart

Round 1 is over and the pool for Hockey Canada to pick their team is now without hindrance.  Here is my final update on the potential invitees to represent Canada in Brno and Znojmo, Czech Republic.  Expect an announcement very soon for the roster as the players will head to Europe almost as soon as they hang up the phone after getting the official word.

1. Brendan Gaunce (Belleville just fell to Ottawa, he's a lock)
2. Scott Laughton (Generals are done, he's a sure bet)
3. Jarrod Maidens (Attack are out but Maidens hasn't played in a long while and likely won't start at the U18s)
4. Gemel Smith (A lock to make the team now that Attack are out)
5. Kerby Rychel (Windsor is now out, Rychel is a sure bet)
6. Mike Winther (Already eliminated, should be on the team)
7. Troy Bourke (Cougars didn't qualify for the playoffs, Bourke should be on the team)
8. Scott Kosmachuk (Plymouth knocked them out, Kosmachuk is a great fit for Canada)
9. Sam Reinhart (Ice are out, he's free to join, would be a smart choice but not guaranteed)
10. Brandon Magee (Royals gone, but Magee remains on the injured list with an undisclosed ailment, if he's healthy he should be included, big asterix here for now)
11. William Carrier (Cape Breton got thrown to the Sea Dogs, Carrier has good potential to be one of the only Q representatives on this team)
12. Chris Marchese (Windsor's out, Marchese has a real shot after strong second half of OHL season)
13. Matthew Campagna (Sudbury is done, Campagna a serious consideration for Canada)
14. Coda Gordon (Swift Current didn't make the playoffs, his numbers turned a lot of heads this year)
15. Christophe Lalancette (Acadie-Bathurst is out, Lalancette could be a consideration)
16. Steven Hodges (Royals are out, Hodges deserves debate)
17. Ryan Olsen (Could be anywhere from 10 to 20 on this list, Blades are out, Olsen on the bubble at least)
18. Branden Troock (People love him, he's got a shot and his team is done)
19. Carter Rigby (Good character player, would be an asset in short term competition, Kelowna is done)
20. Chandler Stephenson (Just got knocked out, really playing with the idea of moving up the depth chrat as he has quietly been a very consistent player in the WHL this year)
21. Anthony Mantha (Reports are he's already been asked to participate, nothing certain yet)

Other bubble forwards: Alex Forsberg, Garrett Hooey, Morgan Klimchuk, Connor Honey, Connor Brown, Zane Jones

Defense
1. Matt Dumba (lock, likely captain as well)
2. Matt Finn (Guelph is out, Finn will be a huge part of the Canadian D)
3. Adam Pelech (Count him in)
4. Damon Severson (Rockets are out, Severson a lock now)
5. Gianluca Curcuruto (Team is out, he had a strong showing at summer U18 camp, good shot here)
6. Trevor Carrick (Majors out, he has a very strong shot to be named)
7. Brett Kulak (Giants are out, Kulak has some fans, could find his way onto this squad)
8. Josh Morrissey (Already out, chances are slim...but you're saying there's a chance)

Other bubble defenders: Nick Walters, Darnell Nurse, Matt Murphy

Goaltenders
1. Chris Driedger (Hitmen out, Driedger should be the starter for Canada, however not everyone is as high on him as I am)
2. Matthew Murray (The Soo is out, Murray has a lot of fans since the Top Prospect Game, battle between top 4 goalies will be tight)
3. Francois Tremblay (Pretty strong shot at making this team either way, team is already out)
4. Daniel Althsuler (Already backstopped Canada to one U18 Gold Medal, showed very well in OHL playoffs but Niagara too strong for the Gennies)
5. Brandon Whitney (Likely the odd man out of just the debate, but anything can happen, team was upset in 1st round of Quebec league playoffs....every team could use a Martimer....)
Bubble Goalies: Dominic Graham


I will be in the Czech Republic covering the event and will add some blogs on here as well as for the Hockey News (www.thehockeynews.com)

A full prospect report and import draft report will also follow and they will be available at www.isshockey.com

Sunday 1 April 2012

End of the Weekend U18 Team Canada Depth Chart Update

Vancouver, Oshawa, Acadie-Bathurst, Guelph, and Sarnia all saw their seasons come to a close on the weekend, meaning more potential players for Canada's U18 team.

Here is an updated depth chart of the potential player pool for Canada:

1. Sean Monahan or Brendan Gaunce (Guaranteed one of these players, barring injury) - 3-2 series lead for Monahan and the 67s.
2. Scott Laughton (Generals are done, he's a sure bet)
3. Jarrod Maidens (Attack are out but Maidens hasn't played in a long while and likely won't start at the U18s)
4. Gemel Smith (A lock to make the team now that Attack are out)
5. Kerby Rychel (Windsor is now out, Rychel is a sure bet)
6. Mike Winther (Already eliminated, should be on the team)
7. Troy Bourke (Cougars didn't qualify for the playoffs, Bourke should be on the team)
8. Scott Kosmachuk (Plymouth knocked them out, Kosmachuk is a great fit for Canada)
9. Sam Reinhart (Ice are out, he's free to join, would be a smart choice but not guaranteed)
10. Brandon Magee (Royals gone, but Magee remains on the injured list with an undisclosed ailment, if he's healthy he should be included, big asterix here for now)
11. William Carrier (Cape Breton got thrown to the Sea Dogs, Carrier has good potential to be one of the only Q representatives on this team)
12. Chris Marchese (Windsor's out, Marchese has a real shot after strong second half of OHL season)
13. Matthew Campagna (Sudbury is done, Campagna a serious consideration for Canada)
14. Coda Gordon (Swift Current didn't make the playoffs, his numbers turned a lot of heads this year)
15. Christophe Lalancette (Acadie-Bathurst is out, Lalancette could be a consideration)
16. Steven Hodges (Royals are out, Hodges deserves debate)
17. Ryan Olsen (Could be anywhere from 10 to 20 on this list, Blades are out, Olsen on the bubble at least)
18. Branden Troock (People love him, he's got a shot and his team is done)
19. Carter Rigby (Good character player, would be an asset in short term competition, Kelowna is done)
20. Chandler Stephenson (Just got knocked out, really playing with the idea of moving up the depth chrat as he has quietly been a very consistent player in the WHL this year)

Other bubble forwards: Alex Forsberg, Garrett Hooey, Morgan Klimchuk, Connor Honey, Connor Brown, Zane Jones, Anthony Mantha

Defense
1. Matt Dumba (lock, likely captain as well)
2. Matt Finn (Guelph is out, Finn will be a huge part of the Canadian D)
3. Adam Pelech (Count him in)
4. Damon Severson (Rockets are out, Severson a lock now)
5. Gianluca Curcuruto (Team is out, he had a strong showing at summer U18 camp, good shot here)
6. Trevor Carrick (An updated addition to this list as of the weekend, Majors are still alive though)
7. Brett Kulak (Giants are out, Kulak has some fans, could find his way onto this squad)
8. Aaron Ekbald (Barrie is up on the Majors 3-2, Ekbald gets serious consideration should Barrie lose out) Series over by Tuesday at the latest.
9. Josh Morrissey (Already out, chances are slim...but you're saying there's a chance)

Other bubble defenders: Nic Walters, Darnell Nurse, Matt Murphy

Goaltenders
1. Chris Driedger (Hitmen out, Driedger should be the starter for Canada, however not everyone is as high on him as I am)
2. Matthew Murray (The Soo is out, Murray has a lot of fans since the Top Prospect Game, battle between top 4 goalies will be tight)
3. Francois Tremblay (Pretty strong shot at making this team either way, team is already out)
4. Daniel Althsuler (Already backstopped Canada to one U18 Gold Medal, showing very well in OHL playoffs which could make point moot if Oshawa upsets Niagara) Tied 2-2 in series, game 5 goes tonight.
5. Brandon Whitney (Likely the odd man out of just the debate, but anything can happen, team was upset in 1st round of Quebec league playoffs....every team could use a Martimer....)
Bubble Goalies: Dominic Graham