Tuesday 3 April 2012

Revisiting different point systems for NHL standings - pre playoff edition

The point system in place now for the NHL is not ideal and doesn't optimally indicate who the best teams are.

Since my original blog on the idea of a 5 point system I have had a ton of feedback, and I've made alterations but also included some of the other options I've discussed with people.

A 3 points system seems easiest (but not necessarily best), each game would have a 3 point value on it.  A regulation win is 3 points, a regulation loss 0.  An OT or shootout win would be worth 2 points, while a loss in an extra frame only worth 1.  Clean, simple, easy to compute, but OT and SO being worth the same still irks me a bit.  The earlier a game ends indicates which team was better on a given night, and how much better.  Winning in a game should be worth more than winning in a skills display.

Hence the 5 point system.  I like the idea of all games being equal in points given out, so I have made an ammendment which actually makes more logical sense.  The idea of the 5 point system would be this:
Regulation win - 5pts
Overtime win - 4 pts
Shootout win - 3 pts
Shootout loss - 2 pts
Overtime loss - 1 pt
Regulation loss - 0 pts

This system would reward the teams for winning earlier as it takes more skill to win a game in regulation then in an extra period or shootout.  On the same side, teams should be rewarded for how long they can hang in with the winning team.  It is much harder and the teams are obviously more equal on that particular day the more frames are needed to decide a winner.  This system would also put a huge benefit to teams who go for it in overtime as opposed to playing for a shootout.  Think two division rivals in overtime, you can go for a shootout win and gain 1 extra point over your rival, or go for it in OT and gain 3 extra points.

The biggest knock on the 5 point system is how hard it would be and how much math would be required to just calculate the totals for the average fan sitting around having a beer and knocking back another slice of pizza with their friends.  Records would likely have to be displayed in order of points: Regulation Wins - Overtime Wins - Shootout Wins - Shootout Losses - Overtime Losses - Regulation Losses.  For example the Rangers record now would read 38-8-4-5-2-22.  Which seems quite complicated, especially since now we normally display recirds as 50-22-7.  That is a tough sell.

Where the 5 point system picks up steam, is in the amount of points that teams get for losing games.  It is much lower.  In the current system, Florida has 18.68% of their total points from losses.  Carolina and Montreal are over 20%.   In the current system Florida is up by 3 points on Washington.  That will require wins in Washington's final 2 games to pass the Panthers.  However, in a 5 point system they still only trail by 3 points.  Something that is made up in a single winning game.  Washington has actually won 3 more games than Florida this year, so that 18.68% points from losses could in fact get the Panthers into the playoffs over a team that has performed better.

Not trying to take anything away form the Panthers, who could still end up the better team in all 3 point systems but the standings should be a lot closer than they actually are.  Buffalo who is also right behind those two teams would actually stand to get hurt the most by another system.  Right now they are 2 points those very same Capitals, but with a higher percentage of their point total coming from losses, they would end up 4 points back in a 3 point system and 9 back in a 5 point system.  This has massive implications, because the Sabres have a game in hand on the Capitals.  A single win and they are notted up with the Caps as opposed to having to win at least 1 game plus in the other systems.

In the West, it's even more prevelent, and again, a playoff spot could be determined because of it.  Currently San Jose sits 8th, a single point ahead of 9th place Dallas.  In a 3 point system, they would sit tied, both with 120pts.  In a 5 point system, Dallas would actually be 4 points up on San Jose.  The reason for this is again the amount of points acquired by San Jose in losses as compared to Dallas.  Dallas has the 3rd lowest percentage of points gained from losses in the entire NHL, at 5.62%.  Only Detroit (5.05%) and Boston (4.08%) have lower scores.  San Jose on the other hand, hovers just above the league average (11.04%) at 11.11%..  That translates to 5 points for Dallas, and 10 for San Jose in the current system.

Also in the West, St. Louis would be the number one seed by almost 2 wins in every system except the current one, where they are actually 1 point behind 1st place Vancouver.  Might not seem like a big deal now, but what if the Blues have to put up with the Green Men in game 7 of the conference finals?

All in all it might seem like a lot of fuss to make for some very small changes in the standings, but the fact is there is a ton riding on those subtlties and the current system fails to reward the absolute best performing teams throughout the season.

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